2019: Factors, power play that’ll shape politics in North-Central

THE recent announcement by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) on preparations for the 2019 presidential, National Assembly and gubernatorial polls has heightened the political tempo in Plateau State, with the prelude to the succession battle already started.

The two major political parties, the APC and the PDP have started making subterranean and delve political moves to reposition themselves ahead of the poll. The incumbent governor, Simon Lalong, is leaving no stone unturned in his bid to consolidate his grip on the state, as feelers within the APC and government circles revealed that the governor is not taking things for granted despite being an incumbent.

Though the PDP is yet to fully recover from the post-2015 election trauma, there is an indication that the party has started mobilisation ahead of 2019 and in the process of healing the wounds occasioned by the imposition of candidate in the 2015 general election, which made most of the gladiators engage in protest votes against the party.

But as 2019 inches closer and with the time-tested development of succession battles always being tough and filled with intrigues, the PDP, which lost power after 16 years in control of the state, as the APC swept the carpet off its feet, is already strategising on how to reclaim power.

However, several factors have been identified as being capable of changing the political configuration ahead of the 2019 poll.

PRINCIPLE OF ZONING:

Though there is no written agreement on zoning among the three senatorial zones, Plateau North, Plateau Central and Plateau South, the people have been observing it in principle right from the second republic. In the second republic, the late Chief Solomon Lar was in the saddle for six years before the intrusion of the military in government. Sir Fidelis Tapgun from the same senatorial zone also became the governor of the state in the next election.

At the beginning of this dispensation in 1999, Senator Joshua Dariye became the governor from Plateau Central while Senator Jonah Jang from Plateau North took over in 2007. Attempts by Jang to circumvent that zoning arrangement, some analysts noted, contributed to the loss of the PDP in 2015, as people of the state, including members of the party, vehemently resisted.

From all indications, however, zoning might not pose any problem to the two dominant political parties, PDP and APC, ahead of 2019, as the two parties have zoned the governorship tickets to the southern part of the state.

Speaking with Sunday Tribune recently, state chairman of PDP, Hon. Damishi Sango, said the party hads unanimously zoned the ticket to the southern zone. The incumbent governor, Lalong, is from the southern zone and he is also interested in running for a second term, though he has not openly declared his intention. His body language and political moves in recent times, analysts noted, have depicted his readiness to contest again.

Existing power blocs/brokers

Prominent among those that would shape the polity of Plateau ahead of 2019 are Dame Pauline Tallen, a former deputy governor and former minister. She was among those who worked assiduously towards the emergence of Lalong as governor of the state. Considered as highly connected and presently an ally of the wife of the president, Aisha Buhari, Tallen’s closeness to the corridor of power at the centre  has further boosted her political profile and positioned her as a factor to be reckoned with in Plateau politics.

Another key power broker ahead of 2019 is the former governor of the state, Senator Jang. In his eight years as governor, Jang wielded enormous political influence in the state and at the national level. The former governor, who is now a senator representing Plateau North, strongly believes that the PDP will return to power in 2019. While hosting some of his political associates, who visited him during his 74th birthday and 45th wedding anniversary, he emphatically declared that the APC is presently occupying Rayfield Government House illegally, saying that in 2019, PDP would return to power in the state. Most of his disciples while in government still mill round him to show their loyalty.

Another gladiator to watch out for is the former governor of the state and former Minister of Commerce and Industry, Ambassador Fidelis Tapgun. Though he worked against his party, PDP, in the last gubernatorial election, he has refused to yield to the advances of Governor Lalong and other APC leaders to join the ruling party.

Ambassador Yahaya Kwande is one of the back bones of the APC in Plateau State. An ardent supporter of former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar, the decision and political future of the former vice-president would go a long way in determining the outcome of the 2019 elections in Plateau, as personalities like Kwande would likely go where Atiku goes. Other stakeholders such as Senator Dariye, Senator John Shagaya and former Minister of State for Communications, Alhaji Nakande Dasuki, among others, are other key figures, who would have influence on the politics of the state ahead of 2019.

In the PDP, the presence of Senators Victor Lar and Jeremiah Useni, as well as Hon. Emmanuel Goar, among others, who have influences in their various areas, is being said to be capable of upturning the APC’s apple cart.

Relationship between the incumbent governor and his deputy

While there is cordiality between the incumbent governor of the state and his deputy, Professor Sonny Tyoden, those who have been watching the trend of political events in the state are of the opinion that the two might not run together in 2019 due to some obvious political factors.

A source close to the APC in the state, who is also a political associate of the governor, recently told Sunday Tribune that there is a plan to prevail on the deputy governor to run for the senate in 2019 as part of the strategies to win 2019 governorship election convincingly. It was further learnt that a member of the House of Representatives from Plateau North elected on the platform of PDP is being positioned to run along with Lalong as part of the game plan to penetrate Plateau North, which is presently considered as a stronghold of PDP and the political base of Senator Jang.

The source further revealed that the realignments of political ambitions and aspirations are presently causing ripples within the party, with some of the supporters of Tyoden wanting him to continue as deputy governor in order to position him for governorship election in 2024.

Emerging governorship contenders

Based on the prevailing political scenarios, the 2019 governorship primary of the APC may not be an exclusive preserve of Governor Lalong, as political watchers have noted that he may have the Minister of Youths and Sports, Solomon Dalung, to contend with for the ticket of the party. Already, there is a seeming rivalry between the duo and it would be recalled that both the governor and Dalung squared it up for the ticket of the party in 2015, with observers noting that there is the possibility of Dalung entering the ring again in 2019.

Dalung is more entrenched at the centre and he is also a crony of some prominent northern oligarchy. He reportedly got his ministerial appointment on the recommendation of some prominent members of Arewa Consultative Forum, a development that did not go down well with some politicians on the Plateau, who perceived it as an affront. The minister is also one of those who have the ears of Mr. President and is also a friend of the Hausa community whose votes determined the last governorship election in favour of the APC.

But Governor Lalong’s strength is said to be lying in the fact that he has reportedly been working round the clock to work his way into the heart of various communities in the state and as well engaging the elders to get their support.

2019 and Saraki structure: Will it be more of the same?

Politics in Kwara State is peculiar in nature, with the ruling parties in the state always being controlled by members and supporters of the Saraki dynasty, founded by the late philanthropist, Dr. Olusola Saraki, dating back to 40 years ago.

To this extent, candidates that had emerged for political positions in the state for that long had been determined largely by the leadership of the political dynasty.

After the demise of the political icon, the mantle of leadership of the political structure was taken over by the son, Dr. Bukola Saraki, the current Senate President and former two-term governor of the State of Harmony.

The leadership of the political dynasty had always employed consensus arrangement to pick candidates for the party as a sort of internal arrangement among party supporters. It is no surprise that pasting of posters was not common during party primaries involving members of Saraki structure, because the leader of the party would choose candidate based on factors such as zoning, rotation and influence, among other reasons. Posters are usually used during proper elections to display the choice of the dynasty among other political parties involved in a particular general election. This arrangement does not, however, foreclose intrigues, argument and disagreement that usually played out among interested parties in the dynasty before the choices are made by the leader of the Saraki structure.

As against what obtained in some other states of the federation whereby political office holders in Abuja were at logger heads with the home-based ones, the Abuja-based political office holders from Kwara State are loyal members of the dynasty. Most of them, who had emerged from the structure, usually toe the line set by the leader.

While it could be said that the incumbent governor, Alhaji Abdulfatah Ahmed, would prefer to hand over power to a loyalist after his eight years of two terms come 2019, the ambition would have to be complemented by the decision of the structure and the ruling APC to which the dynasty currently belongs. Although there has not been an official declaration of interest by politicians in the ruling structure in the state, some current political office holders in the Saraki structure, particularly those who had contested the governorship race in 2007, 2011, and 2015 are also said to be interested in the 2019 race.

Political analysts in the state told Sunday Tribune that the list of governorship aspirants for 2019 is growing by the day as more aspirants find the courage to express their ambitions. Among those being touted are the current Speaker of the  House of Assembly and immediate past chairman, House of Representatives Committee on Justice,  Rt. Hon. Ali Ahmad; the special adviser to the senate president on inter-parliamentary affair, special duties and protocol, Hon. Moshood Mustapha; former national chairman of the PDP, Alhaji Abubakar Kawu Baraje; former Minister of Youth and Sports, who is now the national spokesperson of the ruling APC, Mallam Bolaji Abdullahi; former speaker, Kwara House of Assembly and current member of the House of Representatives, Hon. Rasak Atunwa, a high ranking member of the House of Representatives from Kwara North, Hon. Aliyu Ahman-Pategi; another member of the House of Representatives, Hon. Zakari Mohammed and Hon. Wahab Isa, a former member of the House of Representatives and current Director-General of the ABS Mandate,  Dr Bukola  Saraki’s political organisation.

Feelers in the state have also shown that there were new entrants into the governorship fray in the state, with a member of the House of Representatives from Ilorin emirate and former Commissioner for Works, Dr. Abubakar Kannike and the chief of staff to Governor Ahmed, Alhaji Abdulwahab Yusuf, being mentioned as having joined the race for the top seat. Although both Kannike and Yusuf are loyalists of the governor, their ambition is said to have been premised on the strength and weakness of other heavyweights likely to enter the race.

Sunday Tribune gathered that these political chieftains have already commenced consultations with stakeholders and interest groups across the state.

In the camp of the leading opposition party in the state, the PDP, the crisis rocking the party at the national level of the party has cast a sort of shadow on its drive for the 2019 general election, with two factions of the party claiming the control of the party. With the Ali Modu Sheriff and Ahmed Makarfi factions sentiment still entrenched in Kwara PDP, there is indication that the coast for 2019 might not be clear in the opposition party until the issue is settled at the national level. But political pundits have noted that some of the previous contenders for the governorship position in the PDP might likely show interest again in 2019.

It was also said that some of the aspirants that were politically played out of the race in 2015 may likely make strong comeback considering political moves and efforts they have been making since the last general elections. One of such politicians is Chief Sunday Babalola.

While age may deny some of the leading aspirants in the last general elections such as Professor Oba Abdulraheem and the defeated PDP candidate in 2015, Senator Simon Ajibola the chance to participate in the 2019 governorship race, age is said to be on side of others such as Abdulrahman Abdulrazak, Alhaji Yinka Aluko and Babalola.

Lull in Kogi polity as 2019 nears

Political activities towards 2019 are yet to fully get on track in Kogi State, as the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and other political parties seem to be gradually recovering from the intrigues and the politicking that characterised the last governorship election in the state.

The governorship election in the state was held on November 21, 2015 and concluded on December 5, 2015 following the declaration of the exercise inconclusive by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).

The eventual winner of the election, who was the candidate of the APC, Alhaji Yahaya Bello, assumed office on January 27, 2016. While the PDP is yet to fully recover from the defeat it suffered in the election, the APC is still battling with the crisis that followed the choice of Alhaji Bello as a replacement for the initial candidate, Alhaji Abubakar Audu, who died during the election.

The executive of the APC in the state has been sharply divided along Audu/Faleke and Bello camps, with a majority of the members supporting Faleke, a development that has led to the gladiators trying to control the machinery of the party from ward to state level, playing every card, since that is one of the factors that will determine who gets what in 2019.

The PDP, on the other hand, has been on a sort of revival mission, with the party holding meetings to assure members that the party still remained the one to beat in any electoral contest. The party held a stakeholders’ meeting recently, which was attended by party bigwig across the 21 local government areas of the state. Among those that attended the meeting were the immediate past governor of the state, Capt Idris Wada; his predecessor, Alhaji Ibrahim Idris; former deputy governor, Yomi Awoniyi and the state chairman of the party, Sam Uhuotu, among others. The only message by the party leaders at the meeting was the one that stressed the need for members to remain steadfast and keep hope alive with a strong belief that it can win the next round of elections in the state.

However, generally there is a lull in political activities in the state towards 2019, with political observers attributing this to the fact that there would be no governorship election in the state in 2019. They also noted that the fact that there have not been serious activities regarding the presidency ahead of 2019 has also contributed to the lull in the polity in Kogi State.

Race to 2019: How Benue stands

In Benue State, the coast is not yet clear where pendulum will swing in the 2019 governorship election, though there are signals that the gladiators in the political space are leaving no stone unturned to ensure their successes in coming election.

The leadership crisis rocking the PDP, which once prided itself as the largest political party in Africa, appeared to have paved way for fame of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) to soar higher in the ‘Food basket of the Nation.’

At present, the APC in the state seems not to have a strong opposition, as those expected to give the Governor Samuel Ortom-led administration a bite are facing legal battles, which has diverted their attention and left their supporters without leadership.

Against this background, the APC-led administration in the state, which had initially abandoned its plan to hold the local government election reportedly because its leaders sensed that it might lose and be disgraced at the polls last year, has rescheduled the council poll to June this year. Political watchers noted that the present political situation in the state might have also given Governor Ortom the confidence to beat his chest that his second term bid would be a smooth sail.

In one of the thanksgiving service organised by his media aide at Konshisha recently, Ortom had advised those eyeing his seat in 2019 to forget the idea, saying “I wish they do not waste their resources, because come 2019 election, I will beat them silly. It is better for those muting the idea to contest with me in 2019 to forget it.”

But those versed in the politics of Benue State have maintained that the governor failed to consider the trajectory of the state’s politics when it comes to the issue of reelection of governors, noting that since the present political dispensation began in 1999, the two past state governors, Senator George Akume and Dr Gabriel Suswam faced uphill tasks in attempts to renew their mandates. The calculation is that the 2019 contest might not be a walk-over for Governor Ortom like he and those in his camp believe, with some informed political observers noting that the only way he could have it easy would be to remain subservient and loyal to his political leader, Senator Akume.

Senator Akume, who represents Benue North-West in the Senate, still holds the key to lock and unlock doors in the political space in the state, an influence he acquired since his reign as governor in the state. Not only did Akume unseat his erstwhile godfather, Chief Barnabas Gemade, who reportedly made him governor in 1999, the senator has become a key king maker in Benue.

But given the political terrain and configuration of Benue State, while Akume appears to hold the ace, the ethnic politics in the state, which though favoured the Tivs above other tribes is becoming quite sensitive and delicate and might eventually determine the outcome of the 2019 governorship contest.

In a move that appears to favour the clamour of the Idoma ethnic group to govern the state, an elder statesman and second republic politician, Wartaregh Paul Unongo, recently threw his weight behind the political struggle of the Idomas at one of the stakeholders meeting convened by Governor Ortom, when he advocated power to shift to Benue South Senatorial District of the state. The zone is the only one yet to produce the governor of the state since it was created 41 years ago.

Unongo said that Idoma people “are competent to govern the state,” adding that “this is the only way to make the people feel that they are part and parcel of the state.”

According to Ayew, “as things are in this state, an Idoma man cannot become governor or speaker. Not even chief judge or vice chancellor of the state university; the situation is that bad.”

While informed political analysts have noted that unless there is a gentlemanly agreement between the Tivs and Idomas for power shift, the dream of the Benue South senatorial district to have a shot at the prime seat might remain a dream, indications have emerged that the political leaders in Benue South such as former president of the senate, Senator David Mark and his loyalist and former Minister of Interior, Comrade Abba Moro, who still hold the grip of Zone C, might bow to the wish of their Tiv political allies and accept a candidate from Zone A and B in order to produce candidate that could give the incumbent a good fight in 2019.

Sunday Tribune gathered that other strong politicians in the state were already rooting for the best brains in Zone A and B of the state to lock horns with the incumbent governor in 2019. Some of the personalities whose names had begun to be touted as likely contenders include the former Director-General of the National Agency for Food and Drug Administration and Control (NAFDAC), Dr  Paul Orhii and an economist and former gubernatorial candidate of the PDP, Dr Terhemen Tarzoor  from Zone A and B respectively, among others.

2019: Who the odds favour in Nasarawa

As the political permutations for the 2019 gubernatorial elections begin earnestly in Nasarawa State, political stakeholders across the length and breadth of the state have started mapping out strategies to bring the governorship seat to their zones.

The political gladiators have begun underground mobilisations through their religious leaders and traditional rulers, using both the highly respected and revered offices to woo electorates for their candidates. House to house awareness, as well as consultations and campaigns for their preferred choices for the race have increased in the nooks and crannies of the state, especially the rural communities.

The Northern Senatorial District, which has not had the opportunities of governing the state since the return of democracy in 1999, has co-opted its traditional rulers to embark on a massive campaign to political parties, clamouring for the zoning of the seat to their zone. Like the former governor of the state between 1999 and 2007, Senator Abdullahi Adamu, who currently represents Nasarawa West at the Upper Chamber in the National Assembly, the incumbent governor, Umaru Tanko Al-Makura, who hails from Nasarawa South Senatorial District, will also complete two terms in office.

Sunday Tribune investigations revealed that already, some political gladiators from the Western zone were of the opinion that, according to the formula of the APC, the Western and Northern zone were yet to rule, thus the governorship post should go to any of the zones. They argued that the Western zone has only ruled under the PDP arrangement, and thus could contest in the 2019 gubernatorial election under the ruling party APC. But the PDP, which still considers Nasarawa as its stronghold before the 2015 general election, is currently in disarray because of the national leadership tussle, a development that analysts noted would affect the chances of the party in the state.

As the 2019 general election approaches, the power brokers in the state have begun to make moves to win the state, with the immediate past Minister of Information and National Secretary of the All Progressives Grant Alliance (APGA), Mr. Labaran Maku, who contested against incumbent Governor Al-Makura on the APGA platform in 2015 already among leading governorship aspirants ahead of the election.

The two other main power brokers in the state, Governor Al-Makura and Senator Adamu are already jostling for different candidates. While Senator Adamu has openly declared his support for former House of Representative member on the platform of the PDP, Honourable Ahmed Wadada from the Western zone, the governor is said to be looking towards picking a Muslim from the Northern zone.

Wadada had recently defected to the APC is said to be enjoying the supports of political stakeholders and religious leaders from Nasarawa West.

Given the permutations, the APC has its stronghold in the Western zone and a fraction of the Southern zone, while APGA has its stronghold in the Northern zone, with PDP trying to maintain its stronghold in the South despite its National leadership crises.