2019: Buhari, Atiku and the booby traps

Group Politics Editor, Taiwo Adisa, examines the emerging booby traps on the path of the two leading presidential candidates ahead of the 2019 general election.

Some observers have seen the 2019 presidential contest for the topmost political position in Nigeria as a two-horse race, despite the emergence of more than 70 presidential hopefuls who were unveiled by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) on October 25. Though the number is huge, in reality, you may not be able to count up to a dozen who would make bid impacts in the race.

Besides the candidate of the All progressives Congress (APC), President Muhammadu Buhari, his main challenger, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), there are eyes as well on the candidate of the Third Force, an agglomeration of registered political parties which adopted the Peoples Trust (PT), Mr. Gbenga Olawepo-Hashim and the candidate of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) Mr. Donald Duke.  Even though the list of contestants is long, not many of them are favoured by the indices of political calculations that determine the direction of Nigerian politics.

A number of the candidates are popular on the social media, many are flaunting their cerebral capabilities and educational attainments, many others are claiming to be close to the grass roots, while another category is claiming to be representatives of the youthful population. All of them pick one aspect or the other of the indices that determine popularity of a potential Nigerian leader. But the Nigerian voter has been a peculiar case. He is not really swayed by intellectualism or the cerebral acumen of the candidate. There are ethnic and geopolitical considerations, there are questions as to where the military establishment (camp of retired Generals) leans, there are factors that dwarf performance and capacity. In some instances, there is display of inexplicable love for a candidate, which the philosopher could locate in the realm of the metaphysical.

In that instance, the candidate does not need to have shown concern about their challenges and constraints. He does not need to display ability to end those challenges when elected.  It could just be a herd instinct, driven by God knows what. In picking the front liners in the 2019 race, however, key issues of the structure of the political parties and the personalities behind the parties would suffice. And that is why the roll call won’t be as lengthy as the ballot paper to be produced by INEC in February.

As for the two candidates already identified as the major contenders, there are booby traps on both sides. They are the common and uncommon issues which the campaign train often papers over, they could be the main determinants of the fate of the contenders.

 

President Muhammadu Buhari

Incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari took charge on May 29, 2015. He was the first contender from the opposition bloc to unseat a sitting President in a major election in Nigeria. It was hitherto unthinkable and not a few Nigerians have in recent times opined that the All Progressives Congress(APC) which he led to victory in 2015 was taken by surprise by its own success and that the shock was responsible for the delay in the taking off of the government.

Whatever it was, the administration would be facing a lifetime challenge in February 2019 as the Peoples Democratic party (PDP), which it supplanted in the last election is returning to the field with fresh vigour and claims of rebranding. The party is also on hand with a candidate who had inhaled the deodorants of Aso Rock power house in the years past; Atiku Abubakar, certainly a tough customer the incumbent would want to avoid. There are a number of booby traps that could constraint the Buhari presidency and its search for a second term.

 

Power of incumbency/arrogance of power

Though there is always the story around “power of incumbency” in the Nigerian political parlance, the battle for the number one seat appeared to have cross that hurdle in 2015.  The said power of incumbency really revolves around the control of the security forces, the Police and the paramilitary agencies as well as undue hands in the operations of the electoral commission. As a metaphor, the power of incumbency syndrome relates with the use of the forces of coercion to rig in favour of the ruling administration. When the voting process was largely manual, the deployment of the power of incumbency was massive. But as the election process got more computerised   and cleaned up, with more local and foreign observer organisation queuing to monitor, there have been huge reduction in the capacity of a government to deliberately alter the wishes of the people.

Save for the widely reported partisanship of some security agencies in the rerun elections during the recently held Osun governorship polls, not much of interference from the security have been reported in elections.

But in view of the local and international interests the 2019 elections would garner, it would be highly improbable for any incumbent official to want to rely on the power of incumbency as a source of victory.

In the build up to the 2015 election, close associates of former President Goodluck Jonathan had made him to feel confident that the next election would be an easy ride. They persistently explained to him that his opponents were mere noise makers, who’s stock-in-trade remained propaganda, which they believed, was not sinking with Nigerians.  The president himself expressed that confidence at an engagement to the effect that if he beat Buhari with more some 12 million votes in 2011, does it mean he would have lost all his supporters to make him lose the election in 2015.

It was a sentiment around power and campaigners in 2015 but it played out that Buhari was the one that won the election with some 2.5 million votes. What many loyalists of Jonathan refrained around him was the complacency or call it arrogance of power.  A number of actors around power get to easily discountenance the fears of the common observers and analysist, believing that being insiders in government has imbued them with overbearing knowledge and wisdom.

That could be one of the traps the Buhari crew would fall into. The usual refrain here has been that Buhari has consistently garnered 10 million votes from the North West, where he had always secured victory since 2003. Not many had taken note of the fact that an untested Buhari, who was seeking power, was different from a Buhari who had spent four years in Government House. A man out of power can offer promissory notes, but a man in power would be judged by his records of performance, especially the promises he gave while seeking the office which would have fuelled the passion and support he got. That reality would be put to test for the first time in 2019.

 

Troubled primaries

Those who appeared to see tomorrow within the APC had reasoned that the party should shelve its elective convention till after the 2019 general elections. Initially, that idea was adopted until some other officials convinced President Buhari to toe a different line.  With the removal of Chief John Odigie-Oyegun as National Chairman and the coming of Comrade Adams Oshiomhole, the party has been jumping from one challenge to the other.

Right now, the party is at the verge of losing out from fielding candidates in Zamfara and Rivers states following contentious primaries. The Governors have openly criticised the national Chairman, while a founding member of the party, who is also the Director General of the Voice of Nigeria (VON), Comrade Osita Okechukwu, had openly castigated Oshiomhole for dragging the party into crises.  With a divided house, the APC might be walking itself through a tight rope and a dangerous booby trap ahead of 2019.

 

The political class versus Buhari

One of the booby traps the Buhari candidature would battle in the 2019 challenge is the commitment of the political class.  Since he got involved in politics in 2003, before has not really been accommodated as a member of the political class. He has played the solo efforts and in the early times, was invited to take the mantle.

In 2003 and 2007, the politicians played their games and invited Buhari to lead. In 2011, he went sole with the Congress for Progressives Change (CPC) and in 2015 he signed to a merger that produced the APC.

In all his politics, Buhari has not really been involved in the wheeler dealing acts of politics. He has always had others to do the “dirty job” as in the role of a midfielder in a football team, while he stays around as the striker. During the presidential primaries ahead of the 2015 election, he had the likes of the former Lagos Governor, Senator Bola Ahmed Tinubu and the former Rivers state Governor, Rotimi Amaechi to ensure he defeated Alhaji Atiku Abubakar and Senator Rabiu Musa Kwakwanso.

The 2019 game, however, promises to be different. Buhari has to deal the pack. He has to be the one offering and securing concessions as well as bending or straitening the rules as much as political engineering entails. And he has got to do it himself this time.

Because he had others pulling the strings for him ahead of the 2015 election, he had no political IOUs outstanding as at the time he was sworn in. and that ensured that all the powers were ceded to him in 2019.  There were no promissory notes as to where his key officers or Ministers would come from and who would man which post. As a result, he filled his cabinet the way he wanted, something that initially caused ripples within the APC.

How Buhari has managed power in the last three and a half years would dictate whether he has integrated into the political class or not or whether the politicians have found him a man to trust.

Right now, a number of politicians are believed to be working for Buhari as a matter of convenience, a sort of forced marriage setting.

As investigations show, a number of politicians out there are said to be tired of the “stiff presidency” they are saddled with under Buhari and that a number of them might be content at doing what the Yoruba called Demo ni mowa.  A situation in the First Republic where many were forced into professing Chief SLA Akintola’s NNDP against the Action Group.  The joke then was to say you are in Demo (NNDP), with the song that translated to ‘if you see my hand you can’t see my mind.’

A senior member of the polity also said that the game of 2019 is squarely between Buhari and the political class. “It’s either Buhari cages the political class or the political class cages him,” the source said, adding that if the politicians see one of their own emerge in a big and credible party, the story might change for Buhari.

Besides, it was learnt that some of the politicians who had planned to defect from the APC earlier in the year could not do so for the fear of being hounded by the anti-graft agencies and that such persons might take the decision to stay put in the ruling party but work for the opposition.

 

Attack-mode campaign strategy

One of the ideas that yielded the chairmanship of the APC to the incumbent, Comrade Adams Oshiomhole was the need, according to some stakeholders for a leader who could fight out the battles of the party. The same thinking brought Barrister Festus Keyamo, SAN, as the spokesman of the presidential campaign.

In essence, the APC was ready to tear down the walls of the opposition by bringing combative, war-tested captains.

• Oshiomhole is cancer, he must go or APC’ll be disgraced ― Coalition

Besides, since the emergence of Atiku Abubakar as candidate of the PDP, the APC has been doing more of ‘tear him down’ campaign.

Observers have indicated that this could become a liability at the end of the day, especially is your main strategy is just to tag and denigrate your opponent. It gives little or no room for content that could put the candidate in good view while the constant bashing of the opponent could turn sympathy in his favour.

 

PDP’s Atiku Abubakar

Insiders of the APC who watched the PDP primaries that produced Alhaji Atiku Abubakar as candidate believed that his emergence was against the run of play. In their estimation, the PDP would go for the Governor of Sokoto State, Aminu Waziri Tambuwal. The calculation, according to insiders, was that the PDP needed the support of former President Olusegun Obasanjo for its candidate and that since Obasanjo had vowed never to support Atiku, the party won’t touch the former number two man.

Besides, the support for Tambuwal by a number of vocal governors was seen as a bankable item, which would produce the former Speaker of the House of Representatives as presidential candidate. But the projections came to nought. Obasanjo has since reconciled with Atiku after his emergence. The widespread acceptance Atiku’s candidature also enjoyed at the Port Harcourt convention indicated that the party men have seen his as the plausible candidate to tackle Buhari. Rising on the wave of that acceptability could also constitute a booby trap as we are beginning to see.

 

Complacency

Following the general acceptability of Atiku’s emergence as presidential candidate, there appeared a wave of victory dance that appeared to have been extended beyond the elbow.  The manner in which the Vice-President was announced immediately triggered a near revolt from the South-East, which gave a close to bloc votes to the candidate at the convention. Sources in the party stated that a number of party leaders, who believed that they should have been parted on the back by the candidate were not reached before the announcement of Mr. Peter Obi as running mate.

It was gathered that the likes of Deputy Senate President Ike Ekweremadu and the Governor of Ebonyi state, Dave Umahi were incensed that they were earlier promised the running mate position. The fait accompli feeling is one booby trap that could cost the Atiku camp the 2019 crown. Politicians desire to be massaged, even when they are known to have committed wrong, said a senior political figure at the weekend. Sources said that though the duo of Ekweremadu and Umahi would have eventually yielded the position to Obi, if he was eventually picked after a discussion, the fact that the Presidential candidate made the announcement without touching base with them made it hurt.

 

Management of South-West/South-East 

The management of the dynamics of politics in the South-West and South-East would go a long way in determining the fate of the PDP presidential candidate in 2019.  The South-West already has the number two position under the Buhari Presidency. The South-East has the same position under Atiku. The fact that some politicians of the South-East are still advancing personal causes and eyeing individual benefits under a Buhari presidency could trigger a blockade of the bloc votes the Atiku caucus is expecting from the zone.

Though the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) had denied insinuations that it was working for Buhari Presidency in 2019, reports have consistently indicated that some key elements in the South-East are being lobbied to jettison the Atiku/Obi ticket for Buhari.

In the South-West, the Presidential candidate of the PDP also need to present concrete evidence to back his restructuring agenda, besides assurances that one of the presiding offices in the National Assembly would go the way of the zone to drag the votes out of a possible Buhari ensemble. The zone needed to be massaged with promises to make it drop a number two position for whichever reality that would emerge.

 

Double-dealing/treachery

Treachery is regarded as the norm in politics. Double-dealing is also a sine qua non of political game. Right now, it is taking the central stage of the Buhari/Atiku 2019 challenge.  Both camps can hardly say for sure who is where at every material time.  It is a challenge to both parties and how the leaders double check his deliverables would go a long way in mitigating the effect of the double edged sword. For the Buhari camp, many are said to be tired of the “anti-graft war that lacks human face,” while some are said to be unsure of their placement in the Atiku arrangement, thus making them tools in the hands of the opposition that would promise sumptuous returns after the election.

Sources said that some of the politicians who would hold some key assignments in the Atiku camp have already oiled channels of communication with the Villa.  The same for many who would be ring leaders of the APC campaign, who are said to have opened a second address at the PDP front.

Handling the treachery game would be tricky for both leading candidates, as politicians, being what they are have perfected the essence of this game.