2019 and APC’s struggle to capture South-East zone

AT the inception of the 4th Republic in 1999, the entire states in South-East geopolitical zone namely: Abia, Anambra, Ebonyi, Enugu and Imo were controlled by the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). While Chief Orji Uzor Kalu, Dr Chinwoke Mbadinuju, and Dr Sam Egwu held sway in Abia, Anambra and Ebonyi states; Dr Chimaroke Nnamani and Chief Achike Udenwa were in charge of Enugu and Imo states.

Today, the story is different, as the political landscape of the South-East region has changed, with only three states- Abia, Ebonyi and Enugu still under the umbrella of PDP. Anambra and Imo had fallen into the hands of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) even when the PDP government was at the centre.

Ahead of the 2019 general election, there is a general indication that the remaining three states in the hands of the PDP might be up for a severe contest, as the threat of the All Progressives Congress (APC) to sweep Igbo land increases by the day.

At first, it came as a joke when Governor Rochas Okorocha of Imo State revealed that three other South-East governors were on their way to join APC, prompting mixed reactions from members of the public and even from the insinuated governors. The first salvo came from the Anambra State governor, Willie Obiano, when he denied any plot to move to the APC. Curiously, Governor Obiano did not have any other place to denounce the defection story credited to his colleague, Okorocha, than during his visit to President Muhammed Buahri in Abuja, even as the visit further triggered off the speculation that he may defect to the APC.

Recent views canvassed by Governor Dave Umahi of Ebonyi State on the 2019 general polls, coupled with the league of PDP chieftains defecting to the APC, have, however, shown that Governor Okorocha might be right after all.

While Umahi said he might not vote for the PDP in presidential poll in 2019, high profile politicians across the South-East zone, including former Senate President, Ken Nnamani; Senator Jim Nwobodo and ex-Speaker of the Enugu State House of Assembly, Honourable Eugene Odo and former Governor Orji Uzor Kalu have since defected to APC fold.

Speaking during a recent meeting with traditional rulers and town union presidents in Abakaliki, the state capital, Umahi insisted that the state “will not play politics of sentiments in the 2019 presidential election.”

According to him, “when it comes to the Presidency, we no dey do party. It is the man that will help us to develop this state, that’s the man we will support. But for governorship, national assembly and state assembly, don’t go there. Nobody will touch it. For the Presidency, we will negotiate, we will like the person to discuss with our traditional rulers as stakeholders.”

Reacting to Governor Umahi’s stance, the Director-General of the Voice of Nigeria (VON), Osita Okechukwu said “Governor Umahi had clearly demonstrated his appreciation of the solid foundation being laid in the midst of poor revenue base, by President Muhammadu Buhari for progressive and prosperous Nigeria. I am happy that Umahi is one of thousands of Ndigbo who are coming to terms with the silent revolution going on. My happiness is that the surge of Ndigbo into the APC and by extension the support of the 2nd term bid of Buhari is a prelude to the actualisation of the president of Igbo extraction in 2023. This is why we are appealing to our brothers and sisters who are agitating for Biafra, to realise that a bigger, just and fair Nigeria is unfolding. All we require is patience.”

As it is, the thinking in APC South-East circle is that it has the fireworks to capture the five states in the region, particularly with the entry of more political gladiators into its fold, with the Enugu State APC chairman, Dr Ben Nwonye, boasting recently at Ngwo near Enugu that his party had the capacity to sack the PDP from the state. This came few days the immediate past governor of Enugu State, Sullivan Chime, pronounced PDP dead in the state, wondering why the party on which platform he rode to power as governor for eight years had not been deregistered by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC)

While receiving a PDP chieftain, Chief Uchenna Ozokwor, who joined the party, Dr. Nwoye, expressed optimism that going by the solid structures it had put in place in the 260 political wards of the state, it would sack the PDP-led government in 2019, saying: “You will agree with me that APC now has presence in every nook and cranny of Enugu State, including all the 260 political wards. We have succeeded in planting the party’s machinery in every segment of the state.”

Findings, however, showed that the PDP, despite the exodus of its members to the APC in the South-East zone, had not been losing sleep over the development, as it was said to have begun re-strategising with a view to retaining its stronghold in Igbo land.

Already, the South-East leadership of the PDP, led by Chief Austin Umahi, recently renewed its vigour to retain its grip on power in the zone with what it termed “Operation recapture South-East zone” ahead of the 2019 general elections, even as it declared the APC in Igbo land  as ‘dead on arrival.’

As the 2019 general election inches closer, informed political observers have maintained that there might be more defections to the APC, noting that the PDP would be further threatened and depleted. It was, however, the considered view of a school of thought that the defections to the APC might not be enough to conclude that the party would gain control of the South-East, as they noted that even the APC might be threatened by political developments in the not-too-distant future, such as realignment and the 2019 presidential ambitions of certain key figures in the APC, who might have to look elsewhere to pursue their ambitions “if President Buhari decides to run.”