2019: APC crisis and the return of nPDP

The ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) has been in a running battle with internal wrangling and intrigues, facing one challenge after the other, which threaten its very core ahead of the 2019 general election. KUNLE ODEREMI, in this report, looks at the latest trouble facing the party, with the ultimatum issued by the newPDP contingent of the party.

Protagonists of a third force to tackle the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) ahead the 2019 appear to have slowed down in their campaign lately. They are involved in more pragmatic efforts to hijack any of the existing ‘fringe’ parties and strengthen them for the battle ahead.  Parties such as the Advance Democratic Party (ADP) that individually claimed to don the toga of third force no longer go to town with the slogan, especially after the emergence of a preponderance of pressure groups describing themselves as third force.

The resurgence of the Social Democratic Party (SDP), following the defection of some high profile members of the PDP, who were aggrieved over the outcome of the PDP national convention last December,resonated the Third Force singsong.

With the decision of former President Olusegun Obasanjo to dissolve his Coalition for Nigerian Movement (CNM) into the African Democratic Congress (ADC), the Nigerian political space seems to be up for grab by any of the emerging forces. Talks about emergence of a third force hangs in the balance. The main political parties are at a crossroads, as the centre can no longer hold in each of them, barely nine months to the general election.

The fusion of the Obasanjo-led CNM with the ADC, which was preceded by a letter by the splinter group of the PDP under the name of nPDP within the APC is episodic, as it appeared to have reenacted the circumstances which the CPC, ACN, ANPP, and a faction of the APGA formed the ruling APC. Leaders of the coalition reportedly held a series of consultations with a lot of groups and political parties in the last few weeks. The parties included the Social Democratic Party (SDP), but the consultations and meetings experienced some challenges because of issues, including those relating to the structures of the party at post-fusion. A similar talk by the CNM with leaders of the National Intervention Movement (NIM) ran into hitches because of the choice of a political party. The preference of ADC by Obasanjo elicited mixed feelings among the groups in the negotiation.

Grand alliance

The leaders of the opposition parties and the various pressure groups hope to use the forthcoming governorship polls in both Ekiti and Osun states to make statement about their overall plan for the 2019 general election. They have not foreclosed a grand alliance capable of defeating the APC at the polls. While Obasanjo has rubbished both the PDP and the APC over bad governance, his loyalists said the CNM group was not averse to such alliance, especially towards ensuring that President Muhammadu Buhari does not secure a second term in office.

One of his former aides, Dr Doyin Okupe, emphasised the imperative of such alliance to stop the bid by the incumbent president to retain his seat in 2019. According to the former presidential aide, the CNM was created as a broad platform with a view to presenting a candidate who would contest against Buhari with the hope of defeating the incumbent President.

“It is absolutely impossible to oppose the incumbent, especially a towering figure like President Muhammadu Buhari and hope to defeat him. To defeat Buhari will require an exact repeat of what Bola Tinubu and others were able to do with the APC in 2014 by creating a broad platform encompassing the political majority in the country. This strong coalition will present a candidate to contest against Buhari with the hope of being able to win.”

One of the meetings involved two co-chairmen of the NIM, Dr Olisa Agbakoba (SAN) and Dr. Abdujalil Tafawa-Balewa; and a former Director-General of the National Orientation Agency, Idi Faruk .It was gathered that NIM and CNM reached an initial agreement to adopt a new party and rebrand, with Accord under consideration as a party to adopt for 2019 elections. “We are adopting an existing party which we will rebrand. Other parties would be allowed to form an alliance with us. Initially, we presented the idea of adopting the Peoples Democratic Party, but Baba (Obasanjo) blatantly refused, insisting that the PDP is a dead party. So, we decided to adopt a fresh political party. It will be a new party that we can build. We are looking at a merger with six other political parties which will be a grand alliance of sorts. We were thinking of adopting Accord Party, but we found out that the party is loyal to President Muhammadu Buhari. You will recall that it was Accord Party that took the Senate to court when the National Assembly wanted to change the sequence of elections.”

The collapse of the consultations led to the NIM going back to the drawing board. Jolted by the development, the leaders summoned the courage to give further clarifications for the setback in the talks with the Obasanjo-led CNM. The leaders stated: “This is to inform all that Coalition talks between NIM and Coalition for Nigeria Movement (CNM) convened by OBJ has been suspended temporarily as NIM and CNM could not agree on a common political party to adopt for 2019. CNM has already adopted African Democratic Congress (ADC) today, while NIM is presently consolidating coalition talks with another partner, Coalition for New Nigeria (CNN), a coalition of 35 political parties that intends to align with NIM and another five political parties.”

Undaunted, however, the leaders engaged in a series of meetings to indeed the way forward in their quest to forge a realistic alliance. At the end of such consultations, the movement declared: “NIM Coalition team has just ended a marathon coalition talks separately and jointly in Abuja at various locations with the Labour Party, Labour Party, United Progressive Party (UPP), Alliance for New Nigeria (ANN), Action Democratic Party (ADP), and Action Alliance (AA) in a process of setting up a national grand electoral alliance for 2019.

All the Parties have, by and large, agreed to NIM’s terms and therefore asked to go and reaffirm the endorsement of their leadership organs and structures to avoid future problems. The Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with the prospective Coalition Party and other parties in the electoral alliance will be signed next week after due consultations with their various leadership organs and the steering committee meeting of NIM must have given its nod and endorsement.”

Impending exodus

Indication of likely exodus from the APC was given in the letter by the national coordinator of the CNM 24 hours to its fusion into the ADC. The seven-day ultimatum given by the nPDP to the APC national leadership to redress the marginalisation of the members of the nPDP was indicative of the likely defection of its members reminiscent of the 2014 experience, when some governors and members of the National assembly elected on the platform of the PDP left in droves for the then newly formed APC. A large number of them because state governors, members of the National Assembly in the present dispensation. There are claims that quite a number of those defectors might migrate to ADC, while others could seek refuge in SDP because of perceived disagreement with Obasanjo over some issues over the years.

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What difference can ADC make?

One dominant issue in political discourse in the country is restructuring of the present federal arrangement. Various pressure groups and eminent citizens have lent their voice on the necessity to restructure the country because of the lopsidedness and injustice being promoted under the existing quasi federal arrangement. Ledaers of the three zones in the Southern part of the country along with their colleagues in the North-Central zone took the campaign for restricting to the National Assembly. In the preamble to its manifesto unveiled at the Sheraton hotel in Abuja in 1998, the PDP that eventually formed government in May 29, 1999 pledged to restructure the country. Similarly, the ruling APC unequivocally promised restructuring of the country in in its manifesto, apart from other promises bordering on the welfare of the citizenry.

So, what is different that ADC is planning to bring to the table in its quest to rule the country? Whereas the ADC does not expressly promise restructuring like the APC and the PDP, such promise if inferred by the party through its manifesto. The document expatiates on its plan of action on critical areas that concerned the wellbeing of the citizenry. The eight-point action-plan is preceded by an elaborate explanation thus: “African Democratic Congress as a political party committed to the welfare of people. ADC is a veritable political organisation for the propagation and actualisation of the will of Nigerian patriots to set the Nigerian nation and in tune African continent on the path of true growth and development. While we shall work to bring about all the above stated aims and objectives, our watchword shall always remain to work together without fear or favor for the welfare and well-being of all people. To do this we shall evolve leadership worthy of emulation that will transcend all tiers of government; Local, state and Federal Government.

“In promoting our doctrines, we shall ensure, respect and uphold the role of the constitution of the Federal Republic, the dictum of separation of powers and preserve the right of all citizens to ensure the free flow of democratic principles and ideals. In this context, we must work for the full development and empowerment of the separate arm of governments, the Executive, the Legislature and the Judiciary. The abuse of the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria by anybody no matter how powerful is a contemptuous aberration and will be countered by our party ADC as these are supposed to work in harmony for the public good.

“We believe that government is only important to the extent that she is able to develop, empower and secure her people, and in her ability to build a civilized country that her citizens will be proud of, and that is her duty to raise the nations profile to attract the attention, admiration and respect of all responsible members of the world community, we here under list our compact eight cardinal point agenda for the Nigerian Nation. We are committed. We are charged. We are focused. We are determined. We are prepared. And we are ready.

“As we set forth to change the errors of the past, the ignorance, insecurity, greed and ‘rudderless’ of the present, it is a duty call and we invite all noble men and women with passion for Nigeria to join us as we do the road map for the Future. Our immediate goal is to building a political institution of distinction capable of enthroning leadership that will build an egalitarian society with limitless potentials and opportunities for all. As we present this, with all decorum we wish to note that the act of nation building is continuous exercise, and we invite contributions to this document from Nigerians and Friends of Nigeria and Africa,” the party said.

SDP, NIM talks

With the CNM having fused into the ADC, those groups it once romanced are already seeking ways of coming together under a single umbrella. Both the SDP and the NIM are said to be preparing for meetings this week in Lagos to work out ways of cooperation and collaboration, and possibly coalesce. A source said the leaders were conscious of the expediency of the meeting and would ensure that all likely grey areas were tackled headlong and decisively. Incidentally, the two camps share a common position on restructuring of the present federal arrangement. Besides, the members are strong advocates of a grand alliance; such that is capable of creating a major political upset in the general election.