2018: Unemployment may escalate

WITH National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reporting that 34 million of the 85.1 million Nigerians in the labour force practically unemployed by the end of September 2017, the structure of N8.6 trillion 2018 budget proposal of the Federal Government has been described as a recipe for disaster.

On Friday, the Bureau in its Quarter 1 to Quarter 3 Unemployment Report, said labour force population increased from 83.9 million in Q2 2017 to 85.1 million in Q3 2017.

It also stated that total number of people in full-time employment declined from 52.7 million in Q2 2017 to 51.1 million in Q3 2017.

Overall, 15.998 million Nigerians have so far lost their jobs since President Muhammadu Buhari assumed office in 2015.

Chief Executive Officer of Global Analytics, Mr. Tope Fashua told Sunday Tribune that the template for 2018 budget proposal is not capable of solving the huge unemployment problem as it “is pedestrian and not unnovative. It’s a case of MDAs rushing for spoils on one hand and the executive floating large hare brained ideas on the other.”

According to him, “the budget 2018 is still being debated and the Senate and House of Reps have had cause to poohpooh the proposals, meaning that the final bill may be materially different.

“But based on some of the snippets doing the rounds it is nothing but a continuation of the mediocrity that we are used to. So we can only create more unemployment. We cannot hope to solve the problems of today by using the tools of yesterday.

“The budget template is pedestrian and not innovative. It’s a case of MDAs rushing for spoils on one hand and the executive floating large hare brained ideas on the other.

“The legislators also ensure they get their own. Four million additional people on the streets is a monumental disaster. Only Nigerians will feel that it is just another evening news,” he lamented.

Speaking in a similar vein, Dr John Fabian of the Lagos Business School said the government has to do more to turn the tide against the country’s rising unemployment figure.

According to him, “The government has to ensure that the money voted for capital projects is released. It is the fund allocated to projects that can create employment, the one for recurrent cannot.”

He added that over the years the practice is for the government to announce allocation for projects without releasing money for such projects, noting that this has made it difficult for the budget to have any meaningful impact on job creation.

Fabian also said that to redress the unemployment situation in the country, the government has to work on the provision of electricity. “We cannot energise the economy until we get the electricity situation right. The longer it takes us as a nation to right the wrong in electricity supply, the more job losses we shall record.”

He urged the Federal Government to come up with policies that would activate the economy and empower the private sector so that they would be able to create more employment opportunities.

This is in tandem with the recommendation of the International Monetary Fund team that was in the country between December 6-20, 2017 to conduct the 2018 Article IV consultation.

The team noted in its report that without appropriate policies, growth could not be sustained; adding that neither poverty nor unemployment could be reduced without the deployment of good policies.

“In the absence of new policies, the near-term outlook remains challenging. Growth is expected to continue to pick up in 2018 to 2.1 per cent, helped by the full year impact of greater availability of foreign exchange and higher oil production, but to stay relatively flat in the medium term. Risks to the outlook include lower oil prices, tighter external market conditions, heightened security issues, and delayed policy responses,” IMF stated.

Overall, NBS reports have shown that the number of citizens that became unemployed since the present administration came to office in the third quarter of 2015 rose from 8.036 to 15.998 million by the end of September 2017.

The economically active or working age population (15 – 64 years of age) increased from 110.3 million in Q2 2017 to 111.1 million in Q3 2017.

During the quarter Q3 2017, 21.2 per cent of women within the labour force (aged 15-64 and willing, able, and actively seeking work) were unemployed, compared with 16.5 per cent of men within the same period.

In Q3 2017, 16.4 per cent of rural and 23.4 per cent of urban dwellers within the labour force were unemployed and unemployment is increasing at a slightly faster rate for urban dwellers than it is for their rural counterparts.

Underemployment is predominant in the rural areas (26.9 per cent of rural residents within the labour force in Q3 2017), are underemployed (engaged in work for less than 20 hours a week); compared to nine per cent of urban residents within the same period.

For the period under review, Q3, 2017, the unemployment rate for young people stood at 33.1 per cent for those aged 15 to 24, and 20.2 per cent for those aged 25 to 34.

Underemployment within the same quarter rose slightly amongst the 25 to 34 age group from 22.2 per cent in Q2 2017 to 22.3 perc ent in Q3 2017; and declined slightly amongst the 15 to 24 age group from 35.1 per cent in Q2 2017 to 34.2 per cent in Q3 2017.