2016: Year of long knives, backstabbing

AS 2016 winds down, KUNLE ODEREMI takes a kaleidoscopic view of events that shaped the political circles and the implications for the incoming year.

FROM 1999 till date, it has been with excruciating pains with minute gains for Nigerians under democracy. A 17-year journey that many thought and believed actually held a lot of promises for the largest Black nation has turned out to be about near despondency and inertia fuelled by inanity and egotism of the political elite. The benefits of democracy appears to pale into insignificance because of the seamless degeneration of the whole gamut of a congruous and defective political architecture. The reign of impunity has culminated in a sickening political culture and choking economic recession that has left most Nigerians prostrate.

Inept leadership, lack of capacity to manage scarce resources, rapacious appetite of imperial elite have conspired to deliver a weak political structure that is at the whims and caprices of a few elite. Today, the democratic institutions that are required to strengthen democracy, buoy the gains and fast track economic growth, development and stabilise the polity are fast becoming ineffectual.

In 17 years, the nation generated huge revenues, which should have been deployed to build institutions meant to galvanise and buoy democracy. At the dusk of an outgoing year or dawn of a new one, the political leadership raises hope about a new era, a new dawn that will make much difference. But, unbridled power tussle and backstabbing made the outgoing 2016 another season of long knives with the attendant pains and agonies.

 

Political parties

Political parties are institutions that are critical to entrenching and deepening democracy. They are not just vehicles for winning elections, but instruments for guaranteeing that the electorate are not shortchanged after elections. They are required to show consistency, principle, vision and capacity to manage resource efficiently and transparently.  In almost 20 years of restoration of democracy, political parties, especially the leading ones have felt short of those niceties that exalt an institution that complement others as epitomised by advanced democracies.

The delicate strand of internal incompatibility that has characterised the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) even while it formed government for 16 years snapped at a time it was required to go back to the drawing board to restrategise. Infiltration by fifth columnists, inordinate ambition by a few demagogues and crass mentality of belonging to a winning team further tore apart the PDP in the outgoing year. These and many other factors threw spanner into the works, when the party tried to hold its national convention in Port Harcourt, Rivers State. Two factions of the PDP under the leadership of Senator Ahmed Markarfi and Senator Modu Sheriff failed to strike a common chord and compromise on the way forward because of the narrow and myopic interest of a few power blocs and individuals within the party.

The uncanny power tussle has caused a devastating blow to the capacity of the PDP to consolidate on some gains it acquired as the dominant political party in the land since 1999. Despite the internal combustion, the PDP caucus in the National Assembly appears to appreciate its toga of main opposition party in the parliament. Its ability to rise above differences among some forces within the party ensures a seemingly symbiotic relationship with a camp among lawmakers from the governing All Progressives Congress (APC) in both the Senate and the House of Representatives in the outgoing year.

This was amply demonstrated in the travails of the Senate President, Dr Bukola Saraki over the case of misconduct before the Code of Conduct Tribunal (CCT) and allegation of perjury on Senate Standing Rules, just as Speaker Yakabu Dogara has found majority of the lawmakers in the House as his staying power in his faceoff with Honourable Jubrin Abdulmumunin, over allegations of impropriety.   In September, the House concluded the probe of the budget padding scandal, which led to the suspension of Jibrin for one year.

A harvest of internal feud has equally left the APC gasping for breath on very critical and crucial moments. The spoils of office have created crevices that keep expanding, in spite of denials by either the establishment or the APC top hierarchy. The battle over the chairmanship of its Board of Trustees (BoT) rages, while the acrimony and dust occasioned by the exit of Alhaji Lai Mohammed as the party’s national publicity secretary remain unsettled.

Perhaps, the most talked about issue about the APC is the perceived marginalisation of some of the leaders that actually paved the way for the success of the APC at the 2015 presidential poll. They are either believed to have been sidelined during consultations among party elders and leaders, especially of the legacy parties that transformed to APC on issues concerning key appointments, or their political powers supplanted by their hitherto godsons and beneficiaries of their political benevolence, wizardry and sagacity through the new power blocs created by establishment.

It is against this background that a few of the aggrieved party leaders have been linked to the ongoing aggressive moves to float a mega party capable of giving APC and PDP a run for their money in subsequent elections in the country.

 

Godfathers versus godsons

The mixed fortunes of most of these gladiators characterised the chain of events in respect of majority of the elections conducted by INEC in the outgoing year. Intrigues that predated the elections showed the deep animosity among the political godfathers and godsons, as well as the old breed and the hawks. Worst-hit by crisis of confidence among the leaders was the APC, which, for example, was caught between the devil and the deep blue sea over the governorship seat in Kogi State. Though the Supreme Court has affirmed the election of Yahaya Bello as governor, the crisis engendered in APC over the battle for the seat has left almost an indelible scar in the minds of key gladiators at the top hierarchy of APC.

A similar scenario played out in Edo State, but a more worrisome trend was prevalent in Ondo State, where the camp of APC National Leader, Senator Bola Tinubu vehemently opposed the emergence of Mr Rotimi Akeredolu (SAN) as the winner of APC governorship primary election. With the tacit support of those power brokers, the other aggrieved contenders, became standard bearers parties considered as weak and ineffectual, but were humbled at the poll. Therefore, a new set of trend of power blocs and direction, as well as kingmakers appears in the horizon. The incoming year could set the stage for a major collision with established political godfathers like former Vice President Atiku Abubakar; Tinubu,  immediate President Goodluck Jonathan, who is believed to be rallying force in the South-South, especially in Rivers and Bayelsa states.

 

New movements

With a total of 40 political parties already in existence, a number of politicians have stepped effort to increase the figure in the New Year. Lately, they have used different fora to orchestrate the fact that they were done with either the PDP or APC by their actions and utterances. If they are not championing the cause for restructuring of the country, they are either pooh-poohing the progamme and policy of government formed by the political parties that they are card-carrying members.

Seeming mushroom groups have emerged across the country with undisguised posture and alliance to those ‘aggrieved’ power brokers, trying to showcase the capacity, strengthen, character and acumen of their principals. Other politicians cutting across the older have also formed political associations, one of which is the Yoruba Patriots Movement, which has been trying to rally leading politicians in PDP, APC and the Labour Party, as well as traditional rulers, leaders of Afenifere, among other mass-based groups on the need for the South-West to rescue the zone from the current attempt to further marginalise the Yoruba nation in the scheme of things. The PDP, especially under the Makarfi leadership has declared that it was not averse to the ongoing moves by variegated interests to coalesce into a mega coalition ahead of the 2017 polls, but that the former governing party was not ready to compromise on the issue of nomenclature.

According to INEC’s Director for Election and Party Monitoring, Bala Shittu, the commission re-registered 10 out of the 28 political parties it deregistered in 2012. The parties include Better Nigeria Progressive Party (BNPP), Democratic Alternative (DA), Masses Movement of Nigeria (MMN), National Action Council (NAC) and National Democratic Liberty Party (NDLP). Others are Nigeria Elements Progressive Party (NEPP), National Unity Party (NUP), Nigeria Peoples Congress (NPC), Peoples Progressive Party (PPP) and the Peoples Redemption Party (PRP).

However, a deputy national chairman of APC, Segun Oni, said he was not aware of any ongoing realignment among some politicians, especially with APC top shots as arrowheads because internal crisis in the party. His words: “Where we have crises, we are going to resolve them. If there is political alignment going on, I am not aware of it. But our responsibility is to run the APC very well so that whatever problems we have, we can resolve them. That is what we are here to do. If there is anybody who has been attending meetings as it is termed meeting for realignment, good luck to them.”

It will be recalled that APC national leader, Tinubu had berated the party’s national chairman, Chief John Odigie-Oyegun, for allegedly overruling the party’s NWC’s decision, by submitting the name of Chief Rotimi Akeredolu, as the party’s candidate in the Ondo governorship election scheduled to hold on November 28. Tinubu was angry because his preferred choice, Olusegun Abraham, faltered at the primary election. “To rescue the party, Oyegun must go. He has shown that he and democratic fair play cannot exist in the same party at the same time,” Tinubu said in a statement, at the height of the Ondo crisis.

For those who care about the party, who care about Nigeria and its chance for a better tomorrow, now is the time to stand against this brewing evil before it grows to consume all we have built and hold dear,” he said. Tinubu had a soul-mate Atiku Abubakar, in the issue concerning the emergence of Akeredolu. Atiku had said: “It is imperative for the national leadership of the party to live by the rules of internal democracy and respect for democratic consensus,” he said. “The party is supposed to be an impartial entity in the arbitration of crisis amongst its members in any given election. The party leadership should always be guided by respect for the rules, fairness, equity, neutrality and respect for democratic consensus.” he said.

The position of these two figures was seen as an indication of the speculated fresh political alignment in the political circle.  This assumption was further corroborated by the views of another major political figure, former President Olusegun Obasanjo. He underscored the crises in the leading parties and advocated more virile ones. According to him, “Today, PDP cannot claim to be a strong party in opposition. I don’t know if APC can claim at the national level to be a strong party in government, either. Now that is part of the misfortune of this country today. That being the case, it must be the concern of all Nigerians that the present democratic dispensation must not be allowed to be derailed. And for it not to be derailed, we must have a strong political party in government and a strong political party as opposition.”

 

INEC and elections

From the beginning of the current year, the Independent National Electoral Commission enunciated its progamme of action on a total of 78 re-run elections in 2016. The elections were occasioned by judgment delivered by courts, and the elections were required to be held within 90 days or 60 days as ordered by the Court of Appeal. The elections included 10 senatorial polls; 12 state constituency and 37 state assembly elections, while others were 17 federal constituency elections and two governorship re-run elections.

In fact, the breakdown showed that 38 elections, including that of governorship were to be conducted in Rivers State alone, while eight elections, all on state constituency, would be conducted in Abia State. Other states affected by the exercise included held in Adamawa State, with one rerun assembly poll; seven, including governorship election, in Akwa-Ibom State; one election each in Anambra, Bayelsa, Benue, Kaduna, Nasarawa and Benue States, as well as two in Gombe State. According to INEC, four elections would be conducted in Imo, six in Kogi, and three each in Plateau and Taraba states.

The elections in Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, Edo, Ondo and Rivers constituted the focal points and centrality of public discourse. Events surrounding the conduct of those polls vindicated most bookmakers, as the results triggered a whiff of controversy and traces of violence, particularly in Rivers. The claims and counter-claims by the main gladiators in one hand and their parties: PDP and the APC in another before, during and after the poll have dogged the outcome of the rerun elections, with insinuations about alleged compromise by INEC and law enforcement agents. In the opinion of critics, most of the elections conducted in the outgoing year put INEC on the spot, because of quite a number of those elections were declared inconclusive.

 

Ibori’s release

James Ibori completed his five year imprison term last Tuesday in London. He went to the prison following his conviction for money laundering during his tenure as the governor of Delta state. His release elicited mixed feelings within and outside the shores of Nigeria. While his admirers, mostly his kinsmen felt elated, many felt embarrassed by the excitement because of the ignominy his conduct and conviction had brought to the country and lack of penitentiary by the concerned party and individuals.

Whereas Ibori is still under security watch in the United Kingdom, reports indicated he may have a lot of trouble to contend, when he is eventually left off the hook by London and chooses to return to Nigeria. Anti-graft agencies are believed to be preparing the ground to slam him with fresh charges bordering on financial issues in Nigerian court, which ironically, had given him a clean bill of health when he first appeared on sundry criminal charges.

 

Magu’s confirmation

Perhaps, the issue concerning the confirmation of the acting chairman of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), Mr Ibrahim Magu, generated more hits in the political circle and the social and regular media in the outgoing year. His actions and utterances had created a chain of friends and foes with some of his adversaries and critics accusing him of selective pursuit in prosecuting the anti-corruption war. It was no surprise that his confirmation became a subject of controversy as both the authorities in the Presidency and the National assembly engaged in a hide-and-seek game. A purported security report from the Department of State Security (DSS) cataloguing his ‘sins’ over the years and in the current dispensation became a veritable weapon for the Senate to ‘reject’ his nomination and required confirmation as the substantive chairman of the EFCC by the Senate.

 

Ethno-sectarian agitations

The internal contradictions in the Nigerian federation have continued to manifest in the form of ethnic agitations. Quite a number of ethnic based groups that have championed the advocacy of restructuring of the federation have had their ranks swelled by new similar bodies with some of them adopting more aggressive strategies to press home their demands.

These groups include the amalgam of groups in the Niger Delta are as well as the Independent People of Biafra (IPOB) based in the South-East. Activities of herdsmen and cattle rustlers have equally contributed to heating up the political system, with state governors and top brass of the military establishment, police, and other security agencies being at their wits’ end to curtail the menace. This is notwithstanding the colossal damage and psychological trauma inflicted on the body polity and psyche of the country by the virulent activities of Boko Haram, coupled with the palpable apprehension and fear over the possible backlash of the acrimony and bigotry that has benchmarked the relationship between the military and Shiite Muslims.

 

2019 elections

It is apparent that the groundwork for horse-trading has begun in the outgoing year. The incoming year will be used to consolidate and firm up the structures preparatory to the 2019 general election. The incoming year is critical because all the major power blocs would want to use the governorship elections in Anambra, Osun and Ekiti states to test their individual strengths.