Saving Tinubu from APC

SOMETIMES in 2014, in the buildup to the 2015 general elections, I was analysing the political trends with a friend and colleague and we zeroed in on the emerging All Progressives Congress (APC). We observed the energy, verve and zeal the national leader of the party, Senator Bola Tinubu was bringing into the campaign as if he was the candidate that would occupy the office. He led meetings, led sweeping exercises on the streets and campaign rallies. He was the coordinator of the ubiquitous strategists splashed across the political space by the party. He spoke vehemently at rallies and left no one in doubt where his interests lied.

But we observed that early that the Jagaban was leaving his flanks open and that he might be courting future troubles if he failed to carve a corner of the party or the powerhouse for himself.

We concluded that the man fondly called Lion of Bourdillon might make things difficult for himself if the party he was funding and championing managed to win the presidential election.

We equally observed that the dangerous game of power is not one that allows the kingmaker any roles once the king emerges. The Kingmaker either carves a subordinating role for himself or risk his head on the platter. In our deliberations, we noted that Tinubu might be shooting himself on the knees if he allows the APC go into the Presidential contest solely on the platform of gentleman’s agreement that would ensure all parties to the struggle gets its dues seamlessly.

In our deliberations, we observed that Tinubu either picks one of the senatorial seats in Lagos or ensure his position as “National Leader” is captured in the party’s Constitution. None of the above happened as we saw Tinubu revelling solely in his kingmaker roles.

But the power game is made of what Julius Caesar calls “sterner stuff,” and it appears today that our deliberations of that 2014 day were prophetic.

Happenings within the APC lately have easily corroborated the claims credited to Madam Tinubu, Senator Oluremi that her husband has been “thrashed” in the APC.

Days to the recent National Caucus and National Executive Committee (NEC) meeting of the party in Abuja, Tinubu’s camp was upbeat the wishes of the Bourdillon power broker would sail through.

The man himself was said to have told members of the National Working Committee, (NWC) to start packing their baggage in preparation for the National Convention. He was said to have been categorical in the meeting held at the National Secretariat that there was no provision for tenure extension in the Constitution and that the NWC should set the stage for a convention.

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That was at a time when the Working Committee members were said to be working hard to secure the buy-in of stakeholders to the tenure elongation agenda.

At the meeting with APC NWC, Tinubu was quoted as speaking as a man with power and authority. Instead of taking orders from the National Chairman, the party’s CEO, Chief John Odigie -Oyegun, Tinubu, the leader was dishing out orders.

Oyegun and co were said to have listened with rapt attention, perhaps saying in their innermost hearts, he who laughs last laughs best.

Barely a week after, Tinubu got the result of his latest examination as Oyegun and his NWC were granted tenure elongation.

A day before the NEC meeting that affirmed that verdict, Tinubu’s men were said to have remained upbeat that the NEC would ratify the dissolution of NWC and approve dates for the national convention. Even after the 31 state chairmen of the party released a memo addressed to the National Caucus, which indicated the resolve to extend Oyegun’s tenure, the camp of the former Lagos Governor was said to be defiant. “Who are the chairmen,” one of the chieftains was said to have thundered.

Notwithstanding the public show of solidarity with Tinubu and the manner, some party chiefs have been massaging his ego in the public; many members of the party have seen the decision to extend Oyegun’s tenure as a sort of humiliation of the former Lagos Governor. Someone likened it to a situation where someone farths in your mouth and pour salt at the same time. You can’t afford to lick the fart and you won’t want to spit the sault away!

But the build up to the “humiliation” of Tinubu had been crawling. Now it appears to found its feet. Soon after the government was formed, the Leader was sidelined in the making of key appointments. He was not allowed to pick one of the six Ministers from his zone and some Northern analysts capped that with publications that belittled the “minute votes” Tinubu could only garner for Buhari in the South-West, the acclaimed stronghold of the former Lagos helmsman.

Now that the chicken appears to have come home to roost for the former NADECO chief, a number of permutations must be ongoing. Some would ask the man to pull out of the alliance and form his own structure, some would ask him to lie low and “fight” at the right time, some would ask him to still support the president who has “reposed” so much confidence in him by naming him the only man to reconcile the warring APC members across the states. Those who say this would claim that another four years under Buhari might not be worse than what has been seen.