Migration dragging Nigeria’s labour productivity below African peers’ average — Report

NIGERIA’S labour productivity has fallen below the Sub-Saharan African (SSA) average, largely, due to large-scale emigration of skilled professionals, even as the economy records growth that fails to generate sufficient jobs, according to CardinalStone Research’s 2026 Mid-Year Economic Outlook.

The report by CardinalStone Securities Limited (CSSL), a subsidiary of CardinalStone Partners Limited, highlights a troubling divergence between Nigeria and its regional peers.

Labour productivity stood at just $0.94 per hour worked in 2025, significantly lagging the SSA low-income countries’ average of $3.28.

It is projected to edge up modestly to $1.14 per hour in 2026.

Analysts attribute this weakness to low human capital development and depressed real household incomes.

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data shows that only 12.6 percent of the working population has attained post-secondary education, while UNICEF estimates that about 10.5 million children aged 5-14 are out of school, undermining the future pipeline of skilled labour.

Compounding the issue, 93 percent of Nigeria’s labour force operates in the informal sector, where opportunities for productivity gains and income mobility remain severely limited.

Migration has emerged as a critical drain on the workforce.

Over the past decade, Nigeria has lost substantial numbers of skilled talent, particularly in healthcare, ICT, and financial services.

This exodus has created talent gaps and hindered the economy’s shift toward higher-value activities.

The phenomenon, popularly known as “japa syndrome,” reflects better opportunities abroad in countries like Canada, the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

Nigeria recorded seven consecutive years of net emigration since 2018, driven by high unemployment, under-employment, insecurity, and economic hardship.

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Available data show that the country’s diaspora stood at approximately 17 million in 2024, with about 2.1 million Nigerians living abroad, according to the International Organisation for Migration (IOM) and UN Population Division. Top destinations include the US, UK, Niger, and Cameroon. In the health sector alone, over 30,000 doctors departed between 2005 and 2024, per data from the Nigerian Association of Resident Doctors and the Federal Ministry of Health. In 2024, some 52,000 Nigerians moved to the UK, underscoring the scale of the brain drain.

The CardinalStone report describes Nigeria’s growth as “jobless growth,” with an employment elasticity of growth estimated at 0.74 – far below the 1.18 average in countries like South Africa and Angola.