Scientists have warned that deadly fungi that infect humans and kill millions each year will spread into new parts of the world as global temperatures rise.
The researchers from the University of Manchester, United Kingdom, used computer models to forecast the future spread of Aspergillus, a common fungus that causes aspergillosis — a serious lung infection with high fatality rates.
According to CNN, the study, which is undergoing peer review, predicted that certain Aspergillus species will shift into new regions across North America, Europe, China and Russia as climate change worsens.
“Fungi are relatively under-researched compared to viruses and parasites, but these maps show that fungal pathogens will likely impact most areas of the world in the future,” said Norman van Rijn, one of the study’s authors and a researcher in climate change and infectious diseases.
Fungi are widespread in nature and vital to ecosystems, but can pose deadly health risks. An estimated 2.5 million people die annually from fungal infections, though experts believe the actual figure could be much higher due to underreporting and poor surveillance.
The study highlighted Aspergillus flavus, a species that thrives in hotter climates, as a growing threat. If greenhouse gas emissions remain high, the fungus could expand its range by 16%, reaching new areas in northern America, China, and Russia.
The World Health Organization in 2022 classified it as a critical fungal pathogen due to its resistance to treatment and its impact on food crops.
Another species, Aspergillus fumigatus, is expected to spread northward as global temperatures rise, with its reach projected to grow by 77.5% by 2100. The researchers estimated that an additional nine million people in Europe could be exposed to the fungus.
Van Rijn said fungal spores are inhaled daily by most people without consequence. However, for individuals with respiratory illnesses or weakened immune systems, the fungus can be deadly.
“If the body’s immune system fails to clear the spores, the fungus starts to grow and basically kind of eat you from the inside out, saying it really bluntly,” he said.
Aspergillosis has a mortality rate of between 20% and 40%, and is difficult to diagnose because symptoms such as coughing and fever are common to many illnesses.
Van Rijn also noted that fungi are becoming increasingly resistant to existing treatments, with only four types of antifungal drugs currently available.
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The researchers warned that rising temperatures may increase fungi’s ability to survive inside the human body, while extreme weather events such as floods and droughts could help spread spores across long distances.
Elaine Bignell, co-director of the MRC Centre for Medical Mycology at the University of Exeter, who was not involved in the study, said: “The new Aspergillus study rightfully shines a light on the threat of fungi that dwell in our natural environment and how under-prepared we are to cope with shifts in their prevalence.”
Justin Remais, professor of environmental health sciences at UC Berkeley, also not involved in the study, said his research has identified more than 20,000 aspergillosis cases in the US between 2013 and 2023, with an annual increase of about 5%.
“Fungal pathogens are becoming increasingly common and resistant to treatment, and we are only beginning to understand how climate change is contributing,” he told CNN.
Bignell said public awareness of fungal infections remains low. “People are used to hearing about diseases caused by bacteria, viruses and parasites, but much less so fungal diseases,” she said. “There is a desperate need to reverse this trend given the lethality.”
“Any of us in the future might be affected.”
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