WALE AKINSELURE looks at the defections in Oyo State politics, especially the recent defection of governorship candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in the 2019 elections, Chief Adebayo Adelabu to the Accord Party.
As usual in every election cycle, politicians have, in the past weeks, continued to defect from one political party to another. This gale of defections usually occurs ahead of, after party primaries or just before the conduct of elections. Typically, these defections hinge on failure of politicians to attain certain set targets, disaffection at being outwitted, outsmarted by others in the political party. Such defections could be as a result of loss in quest to control the soul of their party, failure to secure tickets to contest for political positions. Interestingly, the political blogosphere in Nigeria is so fluid such that politicians move in and out of political parties at will.
The fluidity of movement is further fueled by the fact that political parties do not have strong ideological leanings. As a result, politicians exit their membership of parties at the slightest of provocations about developments in their party. The situation is typified by the fact that a politician could sleep as member of a party and wake up the following morning pronouncing his membership of another political party. A political scientist, Dr Gbade Ojo held that the gale of defections cannot be curtailed with the amended Electoral Act because of the possibility of infringement of human rights especially freedom of association.
Another fundamental reason that encourages defect is the lack of internal democracy in parties. There is often utter disrespect for party constitution and due process generally. There is also the mentality of the influential members behaving as if parties are owned by certain individuals. They tend to determine and decide the rules of the game by appropriating parties, leading to friction and acrimony. There is also the issue of party members losing trust in their resolution mechanisms.
While some defectors strengthen the parties they move to, others have little or no impact on their new parties. Oyo State, like any other state in the country, has had its own share of defections. The likes of Senator Rashidi Ladoja have moved from the PDP to Accord to Zenith Labour Party (ZLP). Incumbent governor Seyi Makinde moved from the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) to the PDP to the SDP and back to the PDP; Senator Teslim Folarin has also moved from the PDP to the APC. The late governor Adebayo Alao-Akala was member of the PDP, Labour Party and APC; while late Governor Abiola Ajimobi transversed the ANPP, Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) which later metamorphosed into the APC.
Ahead of the 2023 general election, notable defections so far include Mr Joseph Tegbe, a governorship aspirant of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in the 2019 election moving to the PDP; incumbent Senator representing Oyo South, Dr Kola Balogun leaving the PDP for the APC; Honourable Mulikat Akande-Adeola leaving the PDP for the Social Democratic Party (SDP); Chief Adebayo Adelabu, governorship candidate of the APC in the 2019 election dumping the APC for Accord party; incumbent deputy governor of Oyo State, Engineer Rauf Olaniyan defecting to the APC from the PDP; Adebisi Olopoeyan, a PDP chieftain leaving for the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP); incumbent lawmaker representing Ibarapa Central/Ibarapa North federal constituency, Honourable Muraina Ajibola porting to the APC from the PDP and lawmaker representing Iseyin/Itesiwaju/Kajola/Iwajowa federal constituency, Honourable Shina Peller naming Accord as his new party after dumping the APC.
Political observers usually question how well calculated defections are. They could be strategic or a faux pas. Some defections might initially look strategic but turn out a faux pas later while others may look initially intuitive but turnout a master stroke later. Asked about the defections, in a recent interview, deputy governor of Oyo State, Rauf Olaniyan held that the net gain or net loss of any defection depended on the number of the electorate that the person defecting commands.
So far, the defection by Joseph Tegbe to the PDP looks beneficial as he was instantly handed the Oyo South senatorial ticket of the PDP to contest in the next general election. On the other hand, incumbent senator Kola Balogun who left the PDP for the APC had his hope dashed as he failed to secure the ticket of the APC to contest for a re-election. Not only did Balogun lose out to Barrister Sarafadeen Alli, he was also apparently embarrassed by APC supporters at the venue of the Oyo South primary of the APC. For defecting to the APC, the sword of Damocles in the form of impeachment is dangling over the deputy governor, Rauf Olaniyan. The state House of Assembly has commenced an impeachment process against him over allegations of gross misconduct, abuse of office, financial recklessness, abandonment of office/official duty, insubordination and other offences. With Olaniyan defecting after the primaries of the PDP, political watchers still wonder whether his defection was well-timed or done to play some strategic or spoiler role ahead of the 2023 governorship election in the state. The result of the 2023 elections will show whether the defections by Tegbe, Akande-Adeola, Olopoeyan, Ajibola, Olaniyan, Adelabu, Peller were strategic or otherwise.
The defection of the governorship candidate of the APC in the last election, Adebayo Adelabu to the Accord party, which is not one of the two major political parties, is therefore striking. After losing out in the scheming, game of chess that led to the emergence of Senator Teslim Folarin as candidate of the APC for the 2023 election, Adelabu, on June 2, announced his exiting the APC for the Accord party to pursue his governorship ambition.
Announcing his decision, Adelabu said: “A time exists in the life of a sincere aspiring man of the public when events and circumstances lesson the operation of his mind onto new decision, new desire and new determination. Such time now finds expression in my political career which necessitates vital change, fundamental decision and refreshing determination. It is therefore on this basis that I hereby declare the withdrawal of my membership from the All Progressives Congress (APC) to Accord party. This is the political platform upon which my gubernatorial ambition shall be pursued to actualization by the guidance and grace of the Almighty Allah.”
It was apparent that new alignment was in the offing when Adelabu was not present at the venue of the primary of the Oyo APC held on May 27, 2022. Hours after the exercise, Adelabu explained that he did not participate in an “ignominious charade” whose delegates list was concocted by the winner of the primary, Senator Folarin. Adelabu alleged that the delegates list was “corruptly compromised with names of non delegates included even to the extent of people impersonating the real delegates and illegally voting on their behalf.” After failing in his bid in 2019, Adelabu has said he would be joining the 2023 governorship race in Oyo using the platform of the Accord party. Then on the platform of the APC, Adelabu secured 357,982 votes to emerge first runner-up to Seyi Makinde of the PDP who secured 515,621 votes.
Now on the platform of an Accord Party, which is not one of the two major parties, observers contend that Adelabu has an uphill task of promoting an Accord party to rub shoulders with the APC and PDP in the 2023 elections. In his governorship quest, observers will wonder whether it is Adelabu’s personality or the platform that secured over 300,000 votes for him the last time. Can Adelabu boast of taking 357,982 votes into his new party, the Accord party? Does Adelabu boast of same personality as Senator Ladoja who popularized the Accord for the 2015 election? Few months to the 2015 election, Ladoja, being a former governor, made Accord a household name across the state but polled 254,520 votes to come second to the late Ajimobi of the APC who won the 2015 election with 327,310 votes. Adelabu certainly has his work well cut out in the 2023 election. It waits to be seen how many supporters, loyalists he can mobilise to join him in his new party and work for him in the 2023 election.
Currying the support of his leaders, supporters and people of the state, Adelabu said he is driven by a determination to liberate and rescue the state from “clueless and inept people in government and in the other party.” So far, the likes of Farouk Arisekola-Alao, Kolapo Kola-Daisi have joined Adelabu in his new party, while more aggrieved members of the APC are also set to make similar move to the Accord party. While the defection of Adelabu has boosted the reckoning of Accord party ahead of the 2023 election, time will tell the extent to which he can attract other political bigwigs and the number of his loyalists, supporters that will join him in his new party.
Speaking on Adelabu’s defection, a former chairman, Saki West Local Government, Mr Nathaniel Idowu said he thought that Adelabu would have waited for Senator Bola Tinubu to emerge presidential candidate of the party such that his leadership would resolve the issues. He questioned Adelabu’s calculations, saying that there is uncertainty about whether Accord party has handed him the ticket to contest for governorship on the platform of the party. “Moreso, when you defect, you lose followers both from where you are defecting from and where you are defecting to by the time you come back. Above all, core progressives rarely defect,” Nathaniel said.
However, it is even not all uhuru for Adelabu in his new party, as candidate of the Accord party, Saheed Ajadi has insisted that Adelabu is not member of Accord let alone claim to be governorship candidate of the party. Ajadi said: “We did a consensus. I was the only candidate that paid; INEC witnessed it. The chairman of the party called me to say I should discuss with Adelabu and I said I cannot because Adelabu is not a member of our party. How can Adelabu that did not participate in the primary, go to Abuja to say he has discussed with the national leadership of the party to be candidate? Does that make sense? We have laws of the party, laws of the land. If the national headquarters chooses to do otherwise, then we go to court. How can I be the one to initiate a discussion with Adelabu? Adelabu is supposed to be the one to plead with me to give him the ticket. He has never called me; I have never spoken with him. Adelabu is so arrogant. He thinks if he bribes the national, that is it. You did primaries in APC, how then did you become a member of Accord party in three days to declare yourself as candidate?” Notwithstanding Ajadi’s reservations, some members of the Accord party hold that the party has caught a big fish in Adelabu adding that the chances of the party winning at various levels of contest in the 2023 election has been boosted. Indeed, the intrigues have just begun; the coming weeks will usher in a new phase in the horse trading.