Two years to next general election, the North is smarting for a showdown with President, Bola Ahmed Tinubu. Certain leaders of the coalition led by a former vice president and Peoples Democratic Party ( PDP) presidential candidate in 2019 and 2023 elections, Atiku Abubakar, have since identified former President Muhammadu Buhari, as a political asset and rallying point in their mission to rout the All Progressives Congress (APC) and Tinubu, who by virtue of his current position, enjoys the right of first refusal for his party presidential ticket in 2027.
There are indications that Buhari’s home in Kaduna and Daura have since been turned into a political Mecca with leading opposition figures of northern extraction and chieftains of the ruling party paying homage to the former president. A reticent Buhari was forced to break his silence following recent exit of former Kaduna State Governor, Mallam Nasir El-Rufai and his formal declaration for the Social Democratic Party. Speculation was rife that Mallam Nasir El-Rufai’s defection enjoyed the blessings of Buhari since the former Minister belonged to the defunct Congress for Progressives Change, (CPC), one of the opposition parties that coalesced to form the APC in 2013.
Buhari, through his spokesman, Mallam Garba Sheu, was to denounce his speculated endorsement of Mallam Nasir El-Rufai defection to the SDP. He said: “I am an APC member, and I like to be addressed as such. I will try to popularise the party by all means. At present, I have nothing but gratitude for the support that the party gave me before and during my tenure as president.”
Buhari’s open disclaimer was on the heels of a claim on BBC Hausa Service by the former Kaduna governor that he was taken into confidence before his exit from APC. “I left the APC with his full knowledge. I visited him on a Friday and informed him of my decision to leave the party, because I involve and consult with him on all my matters, ” Mallam Nasir El-Rufai said.
The Progressives Governors Forum, the umbrella platform of APC governors, was to visit Buhari in Kaduna in what its chairman and Imo State governor, Senator Hope Uzodimma, described as a normal visit to pay respect to a leader and former president.
Multiple party sources however revealed that the visit was a troubleshooting initiative by the governors to placate Buhari to talk to his associates against their imminent move to dump the APC ahead 2027 general elections.
With former Kaduna governor as arrowhead, Buhari has been inundated with complaints of takeover of party and government by elements of the defunct Action Congress of Nigeria ( ACN) led by Tinubu while loyalists of Buhari in the defunct CPC grumbled in the sidelines. Buhari’s die-hard supporters also brought to his notice, open indictment of his administration by Ministers in Tinubu’s cabinet, who point fingers of scorn at their principal’s predecessor for the unsavory state of the economy.
A case was the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Wale Edun dismissal of the Ways and Means policy of the Buhari administration as a colossal failure. Speaking while appearing before the Senate Committee on Finance, in March 2024, Edun blamed high inflationary rate on the practice of printing Naira not backed by production in the eight years of Buhari. The CBN had printed up to N22.7 trillion under the last administration to finance its budget deficit. The Finance Minister maintained that the Tinubu administration was determined to audit the humongous N22.7 trillion.
He said:” We talked about inflation, where has it come from? It’s come from eight years of just printing money. And the issue is that that money was not matched by productivity.”
” It’s not like when you earn dollars and you free the naira alongside it, although there’s even a better way than that. But that’s still not as bad. It’s not as if the money is matched by productivity and increase in output. It is not. And what happened was that for eight years, the weak were left to their own devices. It is the privileged few that took everything.”
Does Buhari hold the ace?
Checks revealed that the scramble for Buhari’s attention ahead next general election, was informed by his cult followership in the North-East and North-West. Buhari’s acceptance in the North came handy for the APC in the 2015 general election when he defeated the incumbent and candidate of the erstwhile ruling party, the PDP, Dr Goodluck Jonathan and subsequently, consolidated his party grip on the nation in 2019. Further checks showed that prior to the 2015 elections, the feat of Buhari party’s, the Congress for Progressives Change (CPC) in the 2011 general election was not lost on a discerning Tinubu as the CPC, barely a year to the 2011 presidential election came second in the election with total votes of 12, 250,853. The erstwhile ruling party, the PDP polled 22, 616,416 to win the election.
Bola Tinubu’s Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) with the current National Security Adviser, Mallam Nuhu Ribadu as presidential candidate, managed to score 2,079,151 in the election while the defunct All Nigerian People’s Party, ( ANPP) Buhari’s former political haven paid dearly for losing Buhari as its candidate, Mallam Ibrahim Shekarau, trailed the ACN, polling 911,455. A breakdown of the results of the 2011 results was quite illuminating of the political strength of Buhari in North West, the North East and pockets of states in North Central. According to figures released by INEC, the defunct CPC won Zamfara ( 66.6% of votes cast) Kano ( 60.77%), Bauchi ( 81.69%), Kaduna, ( 51.92%), Yobe ( 54.2%) and Borno state, ( 77.25%)
Other states won massively by CPC included Jigawa, ( 58.21% ) his home state of Katsina, ( 70.99%) Buhari also defeated PDP in Sokoto, the home of the caliphate, polling 59.44% of the votes while it scored 64.03% of the votes in North Central state of Niger. In the core North, Buhari only “lost” to the PDP in Taraba and Adamawa states.
CPC members staying back more than those leaving APC– Osita Okechukwu
Immediate past director general of the Voice of Nigeria (VON) and chieftain of the APC who incidentally was a member of the defunct CPC, Osita Okechukwu said there was nothing to worry about over planned defection of loyalists of Buhari planning to leave APC. While he acknowledged that such was in the offing, he told Nigerian Tribune in a telephone interview that those staying back are more than those itching to join El Rufai in SDP and others that would work for Atiku Abubakar in the proposed coalition. He said: “ We can’t demolish the house we built which is APC. Some of us want to go but I can tell you that majority are staying back. We are going nowhere. So, those not leaving are more in number than those leaving.”
While he admitted that CPC is losing out in the distribution of party patronage under Tinubu, fuelling anger in the Buhari camp, Okechukwu insisted that his colleagues should learn to exercise patience.
“Tinubu is less than two years in office. It doesn’t make sense to dump APC and join Atiku in any coalition. Government is a process. If you don’t get today, what of tomorrow?”
Tinubu’s masterstroke?
While it is an open secret inside Buhari’s House, the APC National Secretariat, that the defection of aggrieved CPC could be imminent, indication has emerged that Tinubu is making frantic efforts at rapproachment to stop the colossal damage that their exit could cause to the party. A party source revealed that the Presidency has opened discussion with some he described as reasonable and considerate members. The source dropped the hint of a change in the leadership of the party to produce a CPC chieftain and former governor of a North central state to emerge as the national chairman of the party. How such horse-trading will pacify the leading figures in the CPC who have the ears of Buhari lies in the womb of time.
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