As the debate over the inroad to the 2023 presidency increases, with the zoning or otherwise of the slot by the two major political parties, LEON USIGBE and SUNDAY ADEPOJU report some underlining issues.
BOTH the governing All Progressives Congress (APC) and main opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) are temporarily in cul-de-sac over the battle for their presidential ticket. The major stakeholders in each of them are engaged in intense power struggle on the zoning, a principle that has become expedient stabilising factor in the politics of the country. This has left the parties in an apparent dilemma on the gristly principle of zoning, with the main power blocs and centres in the APC and the PDP poised to tilt the scale.
With its membership revalidation and registration exercise at the last stage, the uncanny rivalry among the power brokers in the APC is far from over. The raging altercations among them are rooted in the accusations and counter-accusations of a certain powerful and influential bloc hijacking the process. Apart from the skepticism expressed by some party stalwarts at the commencement of the revalidation, others had alleged hoarding of the cards, just as others raised what they perceived as a hidden agenda, primary of which is to technically frustrate the planned presidential aspiration of certain power brokers in 2023.
Before it extended the exercise by five weeks in February, the APC national secretariat had been inundated with demand by state chapters for additional registration cards. Even, state chapter like Kano requested more membership registration cards in the midst of claim by members of the APC in other states that they were deliberately schemed of the exercise by powerful forces. This was particularly the trend in states where the party is smarting from internal conflicts dating back to the last political dispensation. President Muhammadu Buhari had flagged off the registration exercise in Daura, Katsina State, on February 9, 2021 and was earlier scheduled to end on February 23, but extended to March 31, 2021.
Power rotation
In the midst of the intrigues is the discourse over rotation or zoning of the presidency from the North to the South for the next elections. Some top shots in the APC have been part of the raging debate. So far, a national leader of the party and former governor of Lagos State, Senator Bola Tinubu; ex-governor of Zamfara State, Senator Ahmed Sani and incumbent Governor Yahaya Bello of Kogi State appear to be the trailblazers in the battle for APC ticket. Only Tinubu is from the southern part of the country.
A member of the manifesto committee of the defunct merger committee of APC, Chief Osita Okechukwu, was quoted as saying there was a mutual agreement on power shift at the inception of the APC. “There is a convention. It is a convention. From 1999, the convention of zoning was adopted. It is not written in black and white. It is a convention which provides guidance in liberal democracies. So, nobody can come out and say there was no agreement,” he was quoted to have said. “In time past, some politicians were persuaded not to run for president for the sake of equity, fairness and justice. So, after President Buhari’s eight years, it should go to the South. The good thing is that there is no part of the country that does not have competent people.”
His view is a sharp contrast to the position of ex-Governor Ahmed Sani. He expressed doubts about such gentleman’s agreement that power should alternate between the North and the South. His words: “I don’t think there is anything like agreement. You can ask Mr President, he led the group. Asiwaju ( Tinubu) was there. I was part of it. There was no meeting I didn’t attend or any meeting that I attended that there was such agreement. (Such) agreement can’t be verbal; it has to be written. In any case, any agreement that is contrary to laws of this country is not an agreement. The Constitution is very clear. We are in a democracy and democracy is governed by processes and procedures and by laws.”
Zoning arrangement in PDP
Recently, the PDP 2019 Election Review Committee led by Governor Bala Mohammed of Bauchi State submitted its report to the National Working Committee (NWC) of the party in which it recommended, among other things, that the presidential flag bearer in the 2023 election should be chosen through a merit-based system. Governor Mohammed read the highlights of the report to a packed and expectant hall made up of the party hierarchy and chieftains from all parts of the country.
The committee chairman drew applause when he started by acknowledging what he said was the valid argument that holds that the North-East or the South-East should be given strong consideration to produce the party’s 2023 flag bearer because they are the geo-political zones with the shorted stint in power to date. But the ovation turned to bemusement when, in the same breath, he said the PDP must conduct a credible national presidential primary as he maintained that there are capable individuals all around the country who can provide Nigeria the required leadership to pull it out of the present quagmire. This was immediately interpreted to mean dumping zoning, an idea the South-East had relied upon to get a shot at power.
His words: “In line with certain unwritten conventions of the nation’s history, many people think that for fairness and equity, the North-East and the South-East geo-political zones that have had the shortest stints at the presidency should be given special consideration in choosing the presidential flag bearer of the party in 2023 election.
“While we admit this is a very strong argument, we should not lose sight of the fact that Nigeria is endowed with many capable and very experienced leaders in every part of the country. Moreover, the exigencies of the moment demand that nothing should be compromised in choosing the leader with the attribute to disentangle the country from the present quagmire. Therefore, we think that every Nigerian from every part of the country should be given the opportunity to choose the best candidate through a credible primary election as a way of institutionalising a merit-based leadership recruitment process for the country and for the party.”
Ruffling feathers
The recommendation has been a bit confusing, to say the least, to PDP faithful and other political watchers alike, given the relentless push in the two major parties to cede the ticket to the South-East. Recall the Ebonyi State governor, Dave Umahi, dumped the PDP for the APC on the ground that the PDP was unwilling to commit to selecting the presidential candidate from the South-East. A statement of assurance from the PDP that it was yet to take a decision on zoning followed the Umahi’s accusation. Observers say if the PDP accepts this recommendation of the Governor Mohammed report, Umahi would feel vindicated. The recommendation is ruffling feathers in the party against many members’ expectation that the committee’s outcome would be the anchor of a new and harmonious path to reclaiming the presidency.
There are other recommendations made by the committee, but they now seem to have been overshadowed by the zoning proclamation. Among these are that the PDP should set aside a certain percentage for youth and women in elected and appointive offices; the party should endorse the outcome of the 2014 National Conference or, in the alternative, support the call for a new one; and that the PDP should actively pursue restructuring that fosters decentralisation, national unity, and security of lives and property.
The 14-man Mohammed committee was established in 2019 to isolate the causes of the PDP defeat in the general elections of that year. It was also expected to guide the party on the best ways and approaches to adopt ahead of future elections in the country. It drew its membership from the six geo-political zones of the country with two persons coming from each zone. These include the deputy national secretary of the party, Emmanuel Agbo, who is secretary of the committee; Sule Lamido and Tanimu Turaki (North-West); former Speaker of the House of Representatives, Yakubu Dogara, and Alhasan Muhammadu (North-East); Babangida Aliyu and Istafanus Gyang (North-Central), Francis Nwaifuru and Austin Nnamani (South-East), and Austin Okpara and Stella Omu (South-South). South-West nominees were not named by the time the committee was inaugurated.
Disillusionment, threats
Nothing suggests by a glance at the composition of the committee that its report could be skewed to favour or disfavour any region but that has not stopped cynics from asserting that its recommendation on the 2023 zoning is the opinion of the chairman, Governor Mohammed. It has since been followed by expression of disillusionment, dismay, anger and threats in some cases. For instance, the Igbo apex socio-cultural organisation, Ohanaeze Ndigbo, described the recommendation as most despicable, un-reflective and unconscionable. This position was contained in a statement by its National Publicity Secretary, Chief Alex Ogbonnia. It alleged that some highly placed Nigerians, who had benefited so much from the unity of the country are now inclined to take decisions and actions that would further inflame the passions of the patient but aggrieved parts of the country.
Ohanaeze posited: “For the avoidance of doubt, Nigerians agreed on rotation of the presidency between the North and the South; in which case, it is the turn of the South after the tenure of President Buhari. For clarity purposes, both the South-West and South-South had both taken their turns in the persons of Chief Olusegun Obasanjo and Dr Goodluck Ebele Jonathan, respectively. It is rather very unpatriotic and trifles on the sensibilities of the Igbo for the committee to even suggest the rotation of the presidency to the North-East in the first instance and open to every part of Nigeria as a major slight.
“It is disturbing that all the indignities, perceived and real, that the South-East suffers in the current dispensation are the outcome of the Igbo support to the PDP since 1999. It is on record that in 1999, the Igbo were in hock with the PDP through which Chief Olusegun Obasanjo emerged the President of Nigeria; same in 2003 and the subsequent elections in Nigeria. On the other hand, the Igbo had invested much political capital in the PDP only to be betrayed by its apparent lack in principles. The leadership of the PDP is advised to retract the comment made by Bala Mohammed and counter the content of the obnoxious committee’s report in the interest of the party. Let it be known that Ndigbo do not wax so eloquent on political parties.”
APC chieftains support
Drawing on the remark by former Senate Leader, Senator Ali Ndume, who had canvassed for an Igbo president in 2023, Ohanaeze hinted that the Igbo would have no hesitation dumping the PDP to align with any political party ready to project the South-East’s interest. “The Ohanaeze Ndigbo, led by Professor George Obiozor, is committed to a Nigerian president of Igbo extraction and there is no going back on it. It should be noted that the Igbo network transcends geographical space and the enormous Igbo goodwill and resources across the world will be mobilised to achieve this equity-inspired project,” the group said.
If the South-East’s chance to produce the presidential candidate of the PDP in 2023 seems to be slipping away, observers say Ohanaeze must feel heartened by remarks from within the APC as some of its members suggest that they are disposed towards having a South-East or just a southern presidential candidate for the election. Apart from Ndume, one of the strongest voices to hold this position within the ruling party is the Katsina State governor, Aminu Masari, “With regards to zoning, fair is fair. If you ask me, I would, as a person, Aminu, think we should move the presidency to the southern part of the country,” he said, reluctant to be drawn into which part of the South. “South is South,” he added.
Despite this, and even with Buhari from the North-West completing his eight-year tenure, it is still also uncertain where the APC would pick its 2023 presidential candidate.
PDP in quandary, reassurances
The PDP, though, has its hands full. It is in quandary currently over the zoning issue. Some muffled voices within the party believe that Prince Uche Secondus may be responsible for the push to have a northern presidential candidate. Some think that he is paving the way for the return of former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar, as the 2023 candidate while he hopes to retain his post as the national chairman of the party. But Secondus has always dismissed such opinion as false.
The party has moved to reassure its supporters and the South-East, especially, that there is nothing to worry about as far as the zoning of the 2023 presidency is concerned. It reminds them that the Mohammed committee’s recommendation is nothing more than that and the party has yet to accept or reject it. In a tweet titled: Clarifications on Recommendations of the 2019 Elections Review Committee,” the party made its current position known. “Due to enquiries from our members and the general public, it has become imperative to clarify that @OfficialPDPNig is yet to adopt any of the recommendations proposed by the Senator Bala Mohammed’s Committee on the Review of the 2019 Elections. As such, it will be incongruous for anyone to assert that any decision has been taken @OfficialPDPNig on zoning of the presidency ahead of the 2023 elections. @OfficialPDPNig leaders, members and supporters are enjoined to note that the party is yet to take any decision on the proposals presented by the committee.”
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