Sabiu Mohammed writes on the ongoing consultations among the northern establishment on the 2023 presidency.
Less than one year to the nation’s general election in 2023, presidential hopefuls have started indicating their interest to contest the exalted seat of the president. Even though, there are permutations that there could be up to 40 to 50 presidential aspirants who will fly the tickets of their parties, so far only a few have either come out to declare their interest or their foot soldiers are already on ground to market their intentions. In the All Progressives Congress (APC), among the early aspirants are its national leader, Senator Bola Tinubu, who has informed the President Muhammadu Buhari of his intention and the Ebonyi State governor, David Umahi, who has also sought the president’s consent.
In the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), a former Senate president, DrBukolaSaraki; Sokoto State governor, HonourableAminu Waziri Tambuwal and another former Senate president, Anyim Pius Anyim, have shown interest to be the next president of the country. So also is a former vice president, AtikuAbubakar who is yet to make his intention known, but he has said in the next couple of weeks he would address Nigerians on it.
However, while the aspirants are busy traversing the country, various interest groups in the North are also holding meetings and consulting over the 2023 presidency. The main concern of the northern elites is a president who will address the ills in the country particularly in the northern region. According to the national publicity secretary of the Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF), Emmanuel Yawe, the forum is not happy over the turn of events in the region. ‘We need someone who will address these issues. A person who will unite the divisions in the region, bring peace and end kidnapping, banditry and rustling which has become a daily occurrence. Above all, a president who will unite the various sections of the country,” he told our correspondent.
Findings gathered that though President Muhammadu Buhari is from the region and has enjoyed the support of the northern establishment, the feeling among many is that they are worried and perplexed by the frighten state of things in the north under his administration. The issue of security, which the northern establishment used to kick out the former President Goodluck Jonathan from office in 2015, according to findings, is still stares many in the face. Feelers in the ACF and the Northern Elders Forum (NEF) indicate that they are sick with the turnout of events in the country particularly in the North. For instance, during its last executive meeting in Kaduna in early February, the ACF lamented the killings in the region. ACF chairman, Audu Ogbeh noted that the killing of innocent souls was unacceptable and must be addressed. He said the insecurity has led to colossal damage as terrorists have taken over thousands of farm lands and forests, forcing farmers to flee and are now refugees in displaced camps.. Ogbeh further expressed his displeasure over the plight of Education in the region which was also due to the insecurity bedevilling the region saying, thousands of students no longer attend schools jeopardizing the future of our young ones. He capped his views by advising that his forum had not endorsed any presidential aspirant from the rainbow of contenders. He made it explicitly clear that members of the forum should desist from endorsing any of the presidential candidates.
He said the region will not be stampeded in supporting “any candidate like it did in 2015, as it will not be business as usual,” adding “whoever will have our support must be able to tell the North what he or she intends to do to the people.” A source in the Forum who pleaded for anonymity remarked that security, health, education economy, industrialisation and youth restiveness will be the key issues to be presented to any presidential aspirants. According to the source, the worsen security in the region will take the centre-stage as the region is now bleeding, because there cannot never be development without a secured region.
The issue of kidnapping, banditry, rustling in the North West, farmers/herders crisis in the North Central and Boko Haram /ISWAP terrorism in the North East has reduced the region to a theatre of war and refugee camps .A source decried that no day passes without innocent souls being killed and that whoever wished to be the next president must “tell us how he intends to end all the carnage and restore peace to the region.”
Its seems other pressure groups in the region like the NEF share the sentiments with the ACF. Recentl, in a public outing at the Arewa House, its convener Professor AngoAbdullahi, took a voyage into the past and said the region witnessed development in the areas of infrastructure, education and health during the time of its founding fathers led by the revered Sir Ahmadu Bello but regretted the region is now a ghost of its former self. ‘Insecurity has taking over our region. People are refugees in their own region. Brothers are killing brothers. Our arable lands has become camps of the bandits. Women, girls were forced to marry against their will. So many atrocities going unchecked,” he declared. According to the former vice-chancellor of the Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria, it is time to rescue the region. He contended that the NEF and the ACF are in the same page to salvage the region: “We met last year and agreed on so many things. One, whoever wants to be president must tell us how he intends to secure the North. Two, how he intends to unite the country as well as the region. Three, the North must agree with the type of restructuring that will be in tone with our realities among others.
However, in spite of being on the same page, there are contentious issues which might polarise the two prominent northern groups. Findings revealed the northern establishment is divided over the issue of the age. There are different permutations over the age of the possible president in 2023.
Speaking, Yawe believes the issue would play a key role in who will become the next president. He said Nigerians are disenchanted with the way governance is being run in the country, blaming the trend on the old age of Nigerian leaders.
One of the ardent campaigner of younger president is a former military president, General Ibrahim Babangida. In different fora, the ex-leader does not hide his preference for a younger politician to succeed Buhari. He saw the younger politician as someone who will have the energy to attend to the avalanche of problems bedevilling the country.
A view not palatable with elder statesman, TankoYakasai, one-time Special Adviser to former President Shehu Shagari, who held a contrary view. He feels the issue of age should not be a yardstick to judge someone who wants to be president.
In a recent, interview he said what is more important is the person who has the grip of the country’s problems and he believes people like Tinubu are competent to steer the ship of the state considering their wealth of experience and political will. Also speaking, Senator Ibrahim Ida, who is a member of the NEF, thinks the older the better; he believes someone like Atiku is far ahead of other aspirants that have so far indicated interest in the number position in the country.
The governors in the region appear not to be on the same page on the 2023 presidency and power shift. For instance, Governor Abdullahi Ganduje of Kano State has come out to throw his weight behind the one of the South-West presidential aspirant (Tinubu). While, Nasir El-rufai though, has not come out publicly like Ganduje, his body language seems to favour a younger presidential aspirant in 2023. Thus, the northern elites have decided to reach out to stakeholders both within and outside the region. While there is an agreement that the groups reach out to stakeholders both within and outside the region, it is not clear whether at the end of the day, the northern elites will agreed on a consensus candidate.
As faith-based groups like the Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN) Northern states seems to support a younger president and a Christian as its candidate. While, the JaamatulRasullu Islam (JNI) on the other hand seems to go to toy along the line of a younger person but have not decided on where the next president will come. Speaking on this, the ACF leader, Chief Audu Ogbeh had said soon, they would have to meet with leaders of the Afenifere, Ohanaeze Ndigbo, Pan-Niger Delta Forum (PANDEF) and other stakeholders on the issue of the 2023 presidency.
The issue of zoning is also critical to the survival of the region. While some of the Northern elites want the presidency to remain in the region, others believe that the presidency should go to the south for stability and peace of the country. Atiku has been very clear on this. He belives that the North has been shortchanged since the advent of democracy in 1999. To him, the North should be given another chance to complete its term.
However, El-Rufai had in a different fora said power should shift to the South. According to him, why most of the governors are against power shift to the south was the insistence by their south counterparts that power ‘Must’. He argued that there is nowhere in the constitution where the issue of rotation is being stated, saying, what we are doing is a mutual understanding between the regions for the stability of the region. The political parties will also play a key to determine who to will become the next president. Even though, both parties are still playing a cat and mouse game. But with the release of the timetable by APC to have its convention on 26th, March, the drum of politics is now been set in the country. ACF chieftain Ogbeh said, parties should be given the chance to elect its presidential standard-bearers after the groups will screen and only support the candidate that will save the North.